集水区水理模式应用于深层潜移山崩发生时序探讨-中华水土保持学会.PDFVIP

中華水土保持學報, 48(4):153-162(2017) 153 Journal of Chinese Soil and Water Conservation, 48 (4): 153-162 (2017) DOI: 10.29417/JCSWC.201712_48(4).0001 集水區水理模式應用於深層潛移山崩發生時序探討 [1] [1] [1]* [2] [3] 林聖恩 詹雅馨 郭志禹 陳柔妃 許雅儒 [4] [5] [2] [6] 張國楨 李心平 吳若穎 林慶偉 摘 要 傳統以來我們認為引發山崩的兩個主要因素為降雨強度和降雨量，因此大部分的山崩預警系統都使 用降雨延時和強度來判斷，而往往忽略水滲入坡體的延時。在本研究中，我們藉由水筒模式中之蓄水指數 (wa- ter storage index) 歷線和即時地表位移之間的相關性，來說明蓄水指數與深層潛移山崩 (deep-seated creeping landslide) 的連動。以天池坡地區域 2004 年至 2009 年由 GPS 連續地表位移監測所記錄到的四個深層潛移山 崩為例。結果顯示山崩位移與蓄水指數，比與降雨強度有更密切的時序發生相關性。 關鍵詞：水筒模式、全球衛星定位系統 (GPS) 、蓄水指數、相關性函數。 The Use of a Hydrological Catchment Model to Determine the Occurrence of Temporal Creeping in Deep-seated Landslides Sheng-En Lin [1] Ya-Hsin Chan [1] Chih-Yu Kuo [1]* Rou-Fei Chen [2] Ya-Ju Hsu [3] Kuo-Jen Chang [4] Shin-Ping Lee [5] Ruo-Ying Wu [2] Ching-Weei Lin [6] ABSTRACT The amount and intensity of precipitation have long been considered to be two of the main factors that trigger landslides, so rainfall duration and intensity are used in virtually all landslide-warning systems. The effect of the infiltration of water and the increase in the pore water pressure in slopes are usually neglected in traditional ap- proaches. This study demonstrates the effect of water storage content in a slope by using the correlation between the transient water storage index and the real time surface displacement. A tank model is used to model the water storage content and four d