从长期更广阔的角度看经济全球化外文翻.doc

从长期，更广阔的角度看经济全球化外文翻译 ECONOMIC GLOBALIZATION FROM A BROADER, LONG-TERM PERSPECTIVE: SOME QUESTIONS AND CONCERNS BY H.J. WITTEVEEN Key words: globalization, capital ?ows, IMF, spiritual values 1 INTRODUCTION Economic globalization which is increasingly characteristic of the global situation is the ?nal stage of a growth process wich has taken two centuries. During the 19th century, the world economy gradually became more integrated through international trade and capital movements. The May 1997 World Economic Outlook published by the IMF gives a clear and detailed description of this process.From the mid-19th century until 1914, world trade expanded more rapidly thanreal output: 3.5% against 2.7%. This was a consequence of a reduction in effective import duties, which, on average, came down from 15% to 5%, and of greatly reduced transport costs ~IMF ~1997!,p.112!. The First World War and the subsequent depression of the 1930s meant a serious set-back to this integration process. It was only after the Second World War that the creation of GATT and the successive tariff rounds organized by this institution set the integration process moving again, and it was only by 1970 that the share of exports in world output again reached the peak of 1913. Capital movements were also very important in the ?fty years before the First World War. Capital ?ows for some selective countries were even larger as a percentage of GDP than after the Second World War. But after the 1970s, as a result of the dismantling of capital controls, the dispersion of real interest rates again became so low that capital markets were clearly linked together. In light of this long-term view we may ask what is so special about recent developments. Have new factors emerged which warrant the use of the term ‘globalization’ and all the attention focused on it ~IMF ~1997!, pp. 45?46!? The IMF mentions several factors: 1 New technological advances have