Electricity Technology in a Carbon-Constrained Future：在碳电力技术约束的未来.pptVIP

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Electricity Technology in a Carbon-Constrained Future：在碳电力技术约束的未来.ppt

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Electricity Technology in a Carbon-Constrained Future NARUC 2007 Summer Committee Meetings New York City, New YorkJuly 16, 2007 Steven SpeckerPresident and CEO Presentation Objective Answer the following two questions: What is the technical feasibility of slowing, stopping, and reversing the increase of CO2 emissions from the U.S. electric sector? What is the potential impact of the availability of advanced electricity technologies on the cost of electricity in a carbon-constrained future? U.S. Electricity Generation Forecast* Forecasted U.S. Electricity Sector CO2 Emissions EPRI CO2 “Prism” Presentation Objective Answer the following two questions: What is the technical feasibility of slowing, stopping, and reversing the increase of CO2 emissions from the U.S. electric sector? What is the potential impact of the availability of advanced electricity technologies on the cost of electricity in a carbon-constrained future? Economic Model EPRI Economic Analysis Model (MERGE) Designed to examine economy-wide impacts of climate policy Each country or group of countries maximizes its own welfare Prices of each GHG determined internally within model Top down model of economic growth Technological detail in energy sector Assumed Economy-wide CO2 Constraint Technology Cases Full Portfolio Case Assumes all technologies from the Prism technology feasibility analysis are available to be deployed by the target dates Limited Portfolio Case Assumes that Coal w/CCS and Nuclear ALWRs are not available for deployment Economic Modeling Results (Prism CO2 Profile) Economic Modeling Results Conclusions It is technically feasible to slow, stop, and eventually reduce the increase of CO2 emissions from the U.S. electric sector. But it requires: Commitment to aggressive public and private sector RDD. Accelerated commercial deployment of advanced technologies. Meeting future CO2 constraints will increase the cost of electricity. The magnitude of the increase depends on: CO2 policy and it