计及负荷和辐照度加和特性的电力系统可靠性评估模型分析-analysis of power system reliability evaluation model considering the additive characteristics of load and irradiance.docx

effectiveness and applicability of the proposed probabilistic model, and analyze the impacts of the photovoltaic probabilistic model on the reliability indexes of the generation system.Keywords：Reliability Evaluation, Load Model, Solar Radiation Model, Nonparametric Disaggregation, Improved Conditional Kernel Density Estimation.目录中文摘要......................................................................................................................... I英文摘要........................................................................................................................ II1 绪论........................................................................................................................ 11.1 选题背景及研究意义............................................................................................. 11.2 条件核密度估计的研究现状 .................................................................................. 21.3 电力系统负荷概率模型的研究现状........................................................................ 31.4 光伏发电及其概率模型的发展现状........................................................................ 51.4.1 光伏发电的发展现状 .................................................................................. 51.4.2 辐照度概率模型的研究现状........................................................................ 61.5 本文的主要研究内容............................................................................................. 92 解集概念及其条件核密度估计技术............................................................... 112.1 解集思想的简介................................................................................................... 112.2 非参数核密度估计 ............................................................................................... 112.2.1 单变量核密度估计..................................................................................... 112.2.2 多变量核密度估计.....................................................................................152.3 条件核密度估计............................................................