中印制成品贸易比较优势和竞争性分析.docVIP

中印制成品贸易比较优势和竞争性分析 　　摘要: 中印两国贸易源远流长。20世纪80年代以来,随着中印两国关系的改善,中印高层互访频繁,签订一系列经贸协定,推动了双边经贸发展。在短短15年的时间里,中印贸易额从1990年的2.64亿美元发展到2008年的200多亿美元。中印两国贸易计划到2010年,将达到300亿美元。两国贸易中,制成品的贸易增长速度之快出乎人的意料,远远超过了传统的农副产品贸易增长速度。中印两国的生产要素相似,本应是竞争性大于互补性,不可能出现持续稳步的贸易增长,然而近年来两国制成品贸易发展迅速,且大有后来居上之势,原因何在?本文试图运用国际贸易相关理论对近几年的中印制成品贸易的发展进行浅表的分析,以期能解释这一现象。 　　Abstract: Sino-Indian trade has a long history. Since 1980s,under the effort of the leaders and people from industrial and commercial circles of the two countries,economic and trade cooperation between them has improved greatly in recent years. Economic and trade cooperation between the two countries has developed greatly,the trade volume has reached to 2,000 million dollars. It is planned that till 2010 the trade between China and India will reach to 3,000 million dollars. But the remarkable trade rate of rise is so quicklythat it has gone far beyond the traditional agricultural and subsidiary products trade rate of rise. The China and India element of production is similar,and originally should be that competitiveness is bigger than the complementarity,and it is not impossible to appear trade growth with steady steps,however,in recent years,both countries finished product trade development was rapid,also had greatly “catches up” the potential,what is the reason? This article attempts to utilize the international trade correlation theories to analyze the development of finished products trade in recent years,and tries to be able to explain this phenomenon. 　　关键词: 比较优势;竞争性;贸易 　　Key words: comparing advantages;competition;trade 　　中图分类号:F746.12文献标识码:A文章编号:1006-4311(2010)05-0240-03 　　 　　0引言 　　以李嘉图的比较利益学说、在此基础上形成的要素禀赋论为代表的传统的国际贸易理论,可以解释为什么上世纪90 年代末以前的中印贸易难以开展起来,这是因为它们两国有着相似的生产要素,都是典型的劳动力富余的国家,造成了在比较优势基础上发展起来的出口产业相似,都集中在劳动密集型产品上,缺乏互补性。然而在过去的几年中,中印两国制成品之间的贸易每年都以超过40%的速率在增长。这样迅猛增长的势头,是传统贸易理论无法解释的。 　　克鲁格曼(Grubel) 于1975提出运用产业内贸易指数(intra―industry trade,IIT)来测算两国进出口商品在产业贸易中所占比重,进一步表述两国之间的产业贸易情况。1989年,巴拉萨(Balassa)提出“显性比较优势”(revealed comparative advan