Discussant’s Coments on Interdependenies of US 评论人的意见对我们interdependenies.pptVIP

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Discussant’s Coments on Interdependenies of US 评论人的意见对我们interdependenies.ppt

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Discussant’s Coments on Interdependenies of US 评论人的意见对我们interdependenies

Osastolyhenne/p?iv?ys Discussant’s Comments onInterdependencies of U.S. Manufacturing Sectoral TFP’s: A Spatial VAR Approachby Klaus Neusser Hanna-Leena M?nnist? Bank of Finland CEPR-EABCN Workshop, Helsinki 28-29 Nov 2005 Motivation What causes business cycles? The author expects to find joint evolution of growth rates of sectoral TFP s due to - Marshallian externalities or spillovers - Lack of substitutability in each sectors inputs - Aggregation Modelling strategy NBER-CES Manuf. Industry Database, 458 sectors The effect a sector has on another depends on the economic distance between them - input factor shares (avg 1958-1996) - input-output tables (1987) Two specifications, SVARX and ARSX autocorrelation and lagged effect across sectors exogenous aggregate variables to count for the cyclical variation in capacity utilization Marshallian externalities quantified directly Findings Growth rate of TFP in a sector is influenced by neither lagged TFP growth rates in other sectors nor by growth rates of capital intensities in other sector. Suggests Absence of mechanisms that could generate business cycles from non-aggregate shocks Comovements of sectoral measures of economic activity not due to complementarities among sectoral technology shocks Comments Empirical findings seem to be against author’s motivation and against discussant’s intuition How to reconcile them, say, with literature on technology diffusion? Eaton Kortum, IER 40(3), 1999 Innovative countries are the most productive, but there innovations also drive growth elsewhere. Maliranta, J Industry, Competition and Trade 5(1) 2005 RD, International trade and creative destruction – empirical findings from Finnish manuf. industries Comments Measuremet problems more than likely 1. TFP micro level measurement demanding, competition/market structure 2. Distance not time-varying the two rather similar? aggregates dimensions a lot Suggestions Check robustness cross different types