广西都安喀斯特土地系统演化机理及趋势模拟分析-simulation analysis on evolution mechanism and trend of karst land system in du an, guangxi.docxVIP

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广西都安喀斯特土地系统演化机理及趋势模拟分析-simulation analysis on evolution mechanism and trend of karst land system in du an, guangxi.docx

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广西都安喀斯特土地系统演化机理及趋势模拟分析-simulation analysis on evolution mechanism and trend of karst land system in du an, guangxi

IIII（5）将模拟得到的 2015 年土地利用状况与 1988 年、1999 年和2005 年的土地利用状况进行比较，提出相应的对策建议。关键词：喀斯特土地系统，演化机理，趋势模拟，复杂性科学,都安IIIIIITHE RESEARCH OF REGIONAL KARST LAND SYSTEM EVOLUTION MECHANISM AND TREND SIMULATION IN DU’AN,GUANGXIABSTRACTWith the rapid development of national economy, population explosion and the acceleration of urbanization, the activities of land use are more and more frequent, and the evolution of land system is also more and more drastic. The alarm bell rings for human by soil erosion, land degradation, deteriorating ecological environment, the sharp decreasing of the total amount of cultivated land and the frequent natural disasters.Du’an locates in a typical Karst region. The serious degradation ofecosystem, especially the quickly spread of land rocky desertification restricts the development of local economy and threatens the living environment of native people. Although the government adopts a series ofmeasures to control desertification, the “Population — Land —Environment” problem still stands out in Du’an. To systematically master the land use and to understand the future development trend ,this thesis analyzes the evolution mechanism of Karst land system in Du’an and imitates the evolution trend. The main research work includes:Obtain land use information by interpreting with 1988, 1999 and PAGE PAGE VI2005 remote sensing images.Select the speed of land use structure changes,contribution rate, intensity index and land use dynamic degree of land type,calculate 1988-1999-2005 year land use structure change table, and then analyze the number of land use structure change.Analyze the change of land use spatial pattern by using landscape pattern index.Based on the analysis of evolution mechanism, imitate the evolution trend taken advantage of “BP-ANN-CA” model, and then obtain the situation of land use in 2015.Compare the situation of land use in 2015 with the land use among 1988, 1999 and 2005，and provide corresponding countermeasures and suggestion.KEY