四川旅游消费影响因素的计量研究分析-econometric analysis of influencing factors of sichuan tourism consumption.docxVIP

I I 摘 要 摘 要 旅游业对四川国民经济发展的推动作用十分明显，能够带动 GDP 增长，促进 就业，增加财政和居民收入，还能为国家创汇。 旅游业有其独有特点，旅游业具有较强的综合性和较高的产业关联度，属于 多元化，跨地区，跨部门综合性强的产业，旅游业还具有较大的乘数效应，对国 民经济的拉动作用十分明显，基于旅游业的这些特征，许多国家和地区都将旅游 业作为国民经济支柱产业来发展。 四川省具有独特的旅游资源优势，四川具有秀美的自然景观和悠久的历史文 化，旅游业正在成为省内经济重要的增长点，发展旅游业可以促进第三产业的发 展，提高第三产业的比重，改善产业结构，使省内经济走持续发展的健康之路。 本文以旅游经济学为依据，通过参阅各种文献，首先定性分析影响四川旅游 消费的各种因素，然后对影响四川旅游消费的各种因素进行计量分析，从而找出 影响四川旅游业消费的关键因素，再从这些关键因素入手，解释这些因素如何影 响旅游业消费数量，并构造出描述影响四川旅游消费数量因素的计量经济模型， 同时对四川旅游业未来几年的发展趋势做出预测，最后提出发展四川旅游业的建 议。 关键词： 旅游消费 乘数效应 计量分析 II II ABSTRACT ABSTRACT Travel industry make great contribution to Sichuan economy, it can promote GDP and employment, increase government revenue and resident income, meanwhile, travel industry bring foreign exchange to our country. Travel industry has its own characteristic; it not only relates with many industries but also provides prominent multiplier effect. So it contributes a lot to our country’s. Because of these characteristics, many countries and regions regard travel industry as their mainstay industry. Beautiful scenery and centuries-old civilization are Sichuan particular tourism advantage, Travel industry becoming more and more important to our province. Accelerate Travel industry will facilitate development of tertiary-industry, increase percentage of tertiary-industry, and reform structure of industries, make Sichuan grow rapidly and healthily. By means of tourist economics, this thesis is an effort to study major factors related to Sichuan tourism consuming , Firstly, it make an major qualitative analysis about factors related to Sichuan tourism consuming, then, it make an econometric analysis. As a result of above, these theses explain how these factors affect tourism consuming and construct an econometric modal. Finally, this thesis gives some advice to how to develop Sichuan travel industry. Keywords: tourism consuming, multiplier effect, econometric analysis PAGE PAGE IV 目 录 目 录 HYPERLINK \l _bookmark0 第一章 引言 1 HYPERLINK \l _bookmark1 1.1 研究