冷空气影响期间海水水温与溶解氧特征分析及预报.docVIP

冷空气影响期间海水水温与溶解氧特征分析及预报 　　摘要 研究旨在建立冷空?庥跋炱诩浜Ｋ?水温和溶解氧的预报方程，以期为海水养殖户做好防灾减灾气象服务。通过分析近5年宁波西沪港0.5、2.5 m深海水水温、溶解氧在11月至翌年3月的日逐时平均变化特征以及较强冷空气影响期间的变化特征，采用数理统计方法建立相应的预报方程。结果表明，溶解氧、水温的日均变化与气温的变化具有较好的相似性，前两者的变化幅度较气温平缓，日极值出现时间较气温平均滞后1～3 h。较强冷空气影响期间，水温的降温时间和最低值出现时间较气温有1～3 d的滞后性，其降幅与相对湿度、冷空气强度和过程极大风速有关，而最低值滞后时间与相对湿度和冷空气强度有关。水温与气温、相对湿度成正相关，与极大风速成负相关。伴有低温阴雨的冷空气过程易导致2.5 m溶解氧的下降，其降幅与同期气温的降幅、水汽压的增幅及前期气压的降幅有关。溶解氧与气温及本站气压成线性相关，与水汽压呈二次多项式相关。建立0.5、2.5 m深平均、最低水温预报方程以及2.5 m深平均、最低溶解氧浓度的预报方程，方程均通过α=0.01的显著性检验。0.5、2.5 m水温预报最大误差在1 ℃以内，平均误差在0.3 ℃以内。2.5 m的平均、最低溶解氧最大误差分别为0.40、0.97 mg/kg，平均误差分别为0.10、0.25 mg/kg。 　　关键词 冷空气；海水养殖；水温；溶解氧；特征分析；预报方程 　　中图分类号 P731 文献标识码 A 文章编号 1007-5739（2017）22-0144-05 　　Abstract The aim of this study was to establish the forecast equation of sea-water temperature and dissolved oxygen during the cold air affecting period，so as to provide better meteorological services of disaster prevention and reduction for the mariculture households. The diurnal variation characteristics of the 0.5 m-depth and 2.5 m-depth sea water temperature，and dissolved oxygen in Xihu Port of Ningbo City from November to next March in recent 5 years，as well as that during the cold air affecting periods were analyzed. By using mathematical statistics methods，the corresponding forecast equations were established. The results showed that the diurnal variation of dissolved oxygen and water temperature were similar to the change of air temperature. The variation ranges of the former two indexes were gentler than that of air temperature. The time of diurnal extremums of dissolved oxygen and water temperature lagged by 1-3 h on average，compared with that of air temperature. During the cold air affecting periods，the time of the water temperature decline and the minimum value lagged by 1-3 days，compared with that of air temperature，while the decline degree was related to the relative humidity，cold air intensity and the maximum wind speed.The lag time of minimum value appearing was related to the relative hum