美国与日本传真天气图上冬季温带气旋预报误差分析.docVIP

美国与日本传真天气图上冬季温带气旋预报误差分析 　　摘 要：为给航行船舶及从事海洋气象预报和海洋环境预报的工作者正确使用传真天气图提供参考，利用美国和日本发布的逐日地面天气图，对两国冬季温带气旋的预报误差分别进行统计分析.结果表明：日本24 h温带气旋强度和位置的预报准确率分别为86.5%和41.9%，48 h温带气旋强度和位置的预报准确率分别为70.5%和25.5%；日本24 h温带气旋中心气压、纬度和经度的平均预报误差分别为1.3 hPa, 0.8°和1.3°，48 h温带气旋中心气压、纬度和经度的平均预报误差分别为2.0 hPa, 1.2°和1.7°.美国24 h温带气旋强度和位置的预报准确率分别为70%和41.8%，48 h温带气旋强度和位置的预报准确率分别为45.7%和24.7%；美国24 h温带气旋中心气压、纬度和经度的平均预报误差分别为2.4 hPa, 1.0° 和1.6°，48 h温带气旋中心气压、纬度和经度的平均预报误差分别为3.4 hPa, 1.3°和2.1° . 　　关键词：传真天气图； 温带气旋； 航海气象； 预报误差 　　中图分类号：U675.12文献标志码：??A?? 　　 　　Analysis on forecast error of extratropical cyclone in winter 　　American and Japanese radiofacsimile weather charts 　　YANG Yaxin??1, FAN Dexin??2 　　(1. Dept. of Navigation, Nantong Vocational and Technical Shipping College, Nantong Jiangsu 226010, China; 　　2. Suqian Meteorological Bureau, Suqian Jiangsu 223800, China) 　　Abstract： In order to provide a reference for navigation ships and the professionals engaged in the marine weather or environment forecast to use radiofacsimile weather charts correctly, the forecast errors of the ??extratropical?? cyclone are analyzed by using the winter American and Japanese radiofacsimile weather charts. The result indicates as follows: In Japanese weather charts, 24 h forecast accurate rate of the ??extratropical?? cyclone on intensity and accurate rate on position are 86.5% and 41.9% and 48 h forecast ??accurate?? rate of the extratropical cyclone on intensity and accurate rate on position are 70.5% and ??25.5%;?? 24 h mean forecast error on centre pressure, latitude and longitude are1.3 hPa, 0.8° and 1.3° respectively and 48 h mean forecast error on centre pressure, latitude and longitude are 2.0 hPa, 1.2° and 1.7° respectively. In American weather charts, 24 h forecast accurate rate of the extratropical ??cyclone?? on intensity and accurate rate on position are 70% and 41.8% and 48 h forecast accurate rate of the extratropical cyclone on ??intensity?? and accurate rate on position are45.7% and 24.7%; 24 h mean fore