【视频】经济学：金融市场 02 风险管理 (the risk management).docVIP

The Universal Principle of Risk Management: Pooling and the Hedging of Risks PAGE PAGE 1 Lecture 2 - The Universal Principle of Risk Management: Pooling and the Hedging of Risks Overview:Statistics and mathematics underlie the theories of finance. Probability Theory and various distribution types are important to understanding finance. Risk management, for instance, depends on tools such as variance, standard deviation, correlation, and regression analysis. Financial analysis methods such as present values and valuing streams of payments are fundamental to understanding the time value of money and have been in practice for centuries.Reading assignment:Jeremy Siegel, Stocks for the Long Run, chapter 1 and Appendix 2, p. 12 Financial Markets: Lecture 2 Transcript January 16, 2008 Professor Robert Shiller: Today I want to spend--The title of todays lecture is: The Universal Principle of Risk Management, Pooling and the Hedging of Risk. What Im really referring to is what I think is the very original, the deep concept that underlies theoretical finance--I wanted to get that first. It really is probability theory and the idea of spreading risk through risk pooling. So, this idea is an intellectual construct that appeared at a certain point in history and it has had an amazing number of applications and finance is one of these. Some of you--This incidentally will be a more technical of my lectures and its a little bit unfortunate that it comes early in the semester. For those of you who have had a course in probability and statistics, there will be nothing new here. Well, nothing in terms of the math. The probability theory is new. Others though, I want to tell you that it doesnt--if youre shopping--I had a student come by yesterday and ask--hes a little rusty in his math skills--if he should take this course. I said, Well if you can understand tomorrows lecture--thats todays lecture--then you should have no problem. I want to start with the concept of pr