中国碳排放强度驱动因素实证的研究.docVIP

中国碳排放强度驱动因素实证的研究 　　摘 要：深入探讨碳排放强度的驱动因素，对发展低碳经济、应对气候变化有着重要的理论和现实意义。实证研究结果表明：人均GDP、能源强度、单位能耗碳排放、产业结构、能源消费结构变动对碳排放强度有显著正向影响，而人口、城市化率、国际贸易分工对碳排放强度影响不显著；能源强度和能源消费结构对碳排放强度正向影响最大，人均GDP和产业结构影响较大，单位能耗碳排放影响最小；人均GDP持续增长对降低碳排放强度的负向贡献率最大，产业结构变动对降低碳排放强度的负向贡献率较小；而能源强度下降是导致碳排放强度下降的重要因素，其正向贡献率较大，能源消费结构变动和单位能耗碳排放变动对降低碳排放强度的正向贡献率较小。 　　关键词：碳排放强度；驱动因素；人均实际GDP；能源强度；贡献率 　　Empirical Research on Driving Factors of Carbon Emission Strength in China 　　SUN Jing??shui 　　(School of Economy, Zhejiang Gongshang University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, 310018, China) 　　 　　Abstract：Deeply exploiting driving factors of carbon emission strength has a theoretical and practical significance on dealing with developing low??carbon economy and climate change. The results are: GDP per capita, power strength, energy consumption carbon emission per unit, industrial structure, and structural changes in energy consumption, all have significantly positive effect on carbon emission strength; while less effect of population, urbanization rate and international trade distribution; power strength and energy consumption structure have the most positive effect, GDP per capita and industrial structure affect more, energy consumption carbon emission per unit affects the least; constant growth in GDP per capita contributes the most to lower carbon emission strength in a negative way whilst structural changes contributes the least; drop in power strength is a key factor to lower carbon emission strength with bigger positive contribution rate, however changes in energy consumption structure and energy consumption carbon emission per unit have smaller contribution rate. 　　Key words：carbon emission strength, driving factors, GDP per capita, power strength, contribution rate 　　从《联合国气候变化框架公约》、《京都议定书》，到《巴厘路线图》、《哥本哈根协议》和坎昆气候变化大会，围绕温室气体减排义务分担等问题的国际谈判日趋激烈。作为全球最大的发展中国家，近年来中国在努力发展经济的同时也一直通过多种方式致力于保护全球环境，并在哥本哈根气候变化峰会之前公布了2020年碳排放强度比2005年下降40%―45%的减排目标。这是我国应对气候变化的一项重要举措，并将对今后10年乃至更长时间的国民经济产生重要而深远的影响。碳排放强度是衡量一个国家二氧化碳排放情况的重要指标，研究其主要驱动因素