流行病学（钟崇洲）3-病因及病因推断教学幻灯片.pptxVIP

流行病学-8病因与病因推断环境与公共卫生学院郭小娟2013.4.17What is a cause? 哲学的概念 Philosophical concept -- 原因-事物存在的可能性，即引起事物运动、变化的原理。自然科学的概念 Scientific concept -- 改变某一类别(X)的频率或特性，就会引起另一类别(Y)的频率或特性的改变，这样X就是Y的原因。流行病学的概念 Epidemiological concept -- 病因统指那些能使人群中发病率增加的因子。Examples of Epidemiological studyChildbed feverFirst ClinicSecond ClinicYearDeath rateDeath rate1841.17.73.61847.118.92.7 1847.72.02.9Semmelweis Semmelweis’ actionIf so, something stronger than ordinary soap was needed for handwashing The maternal mortality rate plummeted. Autopsy, operation, cure wound, deliverCAUSE的概念病因的定义：“A causal relationship would be r