城投债规模对商品房价格影响的实证分析-金融学专业论文.docxVIP

摘 要 我国的房地产业在经过这十几年的迅猛发展之后，已经逐步成为国民经济的 支柱产业和经济发展的助推器。但随着房地产业成为消费和投资的热点领域，房 价也进入了快速上涨阶段，上涨幅度超过国内经济和人均收入增长速度，即使是 在中央及地方政府不断出台政策调控房价的背景下，房价的依然在不断上涨。房 价收入比攀升，购买住房已经成为现今年轻人身上最大的包袱，房价也成为民生 领域人们最关心的热点问题。 本文从理论和实证方面研究了城投债规模变动对商品房价格变动的影响，首 先是影响途径分析：城投债筹集资金的投向包括保障房及城市基础设施建设领 域，而保障房的建设与基础设施的改善会直接影响房价；城投债规模的扩大增加 债券违约的可能性，一方面政府为了避免违约的发生会维持高地价，另一方面若 部分债券出现违约会金融市场会因为其特殊性而产生大的波动；城投债可以通过 促进城镇化来影响房价。因此城投债规模的扩大可能抬高也可能降低商品房均 价，其作用具有不可确定性。在此理论分析的基础上，对城投债规模、城镇居民 人均收入、贷款利率和商品房价格以影响进行描述性统计分析，随后进行相关变 量的实证研究，全面系统地分析城投债规模变动对房地产价格的影响，通过对我 国大陆除西藏之外的 30 个省、直辖市、自治区数据的实证研究，得出结论：城 投债规模的变化对商品房价格变化的影响是显著的，城投债规模每增长 1 倍，商 品房价格增长 1.7%。最后从城投债增幅和投资方向等方面提出改进的建议。 关键词：商品房价格，城投债规模，居民人均收入，土地出让收入 Abstract Developing rapidly in ten years,the real estate industry has become a pillar industry of the national economy and economic development. But with the real estate industry has become a hot field of consumption and investment, prices have a rapid rise in the rate over the domestic economy and per capita income growth rate. Price earnings ratio is climbing,so buying houses become the biggest burden to the young and climbing prices have become a hot issue people are most concerned. The scale of city investment bond impact on real estate prices in five ways.Firstly,the funds raised by bonds were invested in affordable housing and infrastructure which would directly affect the price. Secondly,the expansion of city investment bonds would increase the likelihood of default.On the one hand the government would like to keep land price higher to avoid the default. On the other hand, if some of the bonds defaults occur,the financial markets will have large fluctuations because of its specificity.Thirdly city bonds could promote urbanization ,then influence prices. On the basis of this theoretical analysis,I have an empirical study.the scale of The scale of city investment bond,the per capita income of urban residents,lending rate, real estate price will be taken into consideration.Having empirical research on data of 30