城市交通出行路径选择模型研究-交通运输规划与管理专业论文.docxVIP

Abstract With the more and more serious traffic problems, route choice is becoming one of the issues that the transport and regional science experts do research on. Route choice is not only the basis of the research on the reliability of the urban road net-work, but also a decisive factor of whether the Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) can induce the traffic. In the uncertain situation with several origin and destination, there is the optimal route is random between origin and destination. Different actor has different performance characteristics while choosing the optimal route. So far, scientists have made great achievements on Route Choice according to the theory of psychology and behavior. And the travel decision-making behavior models are all done under the framework of the expected utility theory. But many disadvantages still exist in the theory concerning the reality. “Prospect theory” Consider the decision-making response at risks of a traveler, experience and other individual characteristics, and improved some disadvantages of the expected utility theory. Based on the framework of the “prospect theory”, it established the route choice model of travelers in a certain day, defined the decision-making reference point and applied the value function and decision weighting function. At the same time, it proved that the prospect theory can be a more accurate description of travel decision-making behavior in uncertain situation combined examples. Key Words: route choice，certain situation，uncertain situation，prospect theory，reference point，value function，decision weighting function II 目 录 摘 要................................................................................................................. I HYPERLINK \l _bookmark0 Abstract ............................................................................................................ II 1 绪 论 HYPERLINK \l _bookmark1 1.1 本课题的研究背景和意义 ..............................................................