城市居民生活用水水价预测研究-企业管理专业论文.docxVIP

Classified Index: F294.1 U.D.C: 338.5 Dissertation for the Master Degree in Management RESEARCH ON WATER PRICE FORECASTING FOR URBAN RESIDENTS Candidate: Zhang Dandan Supervisor: Associate Prof. Du Guirong Academic Degree Applied for: Master of Management Specialty: Business Administration Affiliation: Shenzhen Graduate School Date of Defence: December, 2012 Degree-Conferring-Institution: Harbin Institute of Technology 摘 要 随着水资源的稀缺的进一步加剧，水价作为调节资源合理配置的工具，其重 要性越来越明显。当前关于城市供水价格的研究非常多，但是研究多集中在单一 水价模型的建立和参数的估算方面。本论文在大量阅读国内外文献的基础上，总 结出边际成本定价是常用的定价方式，但是单独运用边际成本定价会存在一定的 弊端，因此本文在此基础上进行了改善。 本文建立了同时包含供水和需求的计量经济学模型。首先分析了模型建立的 理论基础——最优理论和需求理论，在此基础上运用泰勒公式和谢泼德定理并结 合我国的实际情况，推导出易于计算的供水成本函数和需求函数。实证研究部分， 将理论模型应用于苏州城市居民用水的价格预测，运用 Eviews 软件对样本数据进 行了统计性描述性，使用静态面板数据模型对成本函数和需求函数中的参数进行 估计。最后运用情景分析方法分析了一定情景下水价变动情况，预测了苏州未来 水价变动趋势。 通过实证研究证明了理论模型的可行性，虽然该模型通过苏州市的数据得到 验证，但是建立模型的理论基础适用于全国各个地区水价预测。实证研究得到： 苏州市价格函数中水价与人均供水需求量显著负相关；收入在一定程度上对水价 的影响是显著的；家庭人口数量对水价的影响不显著；正如预期的一样，工业用 水人口所占的比例对供水价格有显著的影响；降水量对水价的影响很小，几乎没 什么影响。 关键词：水价；边际成本定价；需求函数；情景分析法 Abstract The scarcity of water resource becomes more and more serious. Water price as a means of resource allocation between users, its importance is more and more obvious. There is an abundant literature on water pricing, but most of them focused on the establishment of single price model and parameter estimation. The most consensual result from the water pricing literature is that efficiency requires marginal cost pricing. Single marginal cost pricing will have some disadvantage. It does not ensure that the water utility generates enough, and just enough, revenues to cover costs. This study improves the research based on the marginal cost pricing. Cost function and demand functions are established at the same time. Firstly, this paper analyzes the basic theories of the model—the first-best theory and the demand theory. Based on the theory, the cost function and demand function are obtained by using the second order Taylor expansion and Shephard’s lemma. In t