基于时间的生产计划—季节性商品的运营策略教程教案.pptVIP

排队论 M/M/1 到达间隔时间的分布λ /服务时间的分布μ /服务台数 指数分布—服务时间、消耗品寿命、出故障时间 等待时间与利用率（服务强度、话务强度）的指数关系 LITTLE 公式：队长=到达率*等待时间 本科生人数=4年*每年入学人数= 4年*每年毕业人数 稳定状态，长期 成本—服务台数—等待时间—客户满意 模拟仿真 随着利用率接近1，等待时间（排队长度）呈指数增长。 利用率（服务强度）（utilization, or traffic intensity) 高的时候（接近于1），增加投入（如增加服务台以降低利用率）的效果非常明显，等待时间会明显减少； 利用率较低时，增加投入的效果不大。 The average waiting time for different utilizations is much bigger than the waiting time for the average utilization. 一高一低的利用率的排队会远大于等利用率的排队。 Suggestions for Managing Queues 1. Determine an acceptable waiting time for your customers 2. Try to divert your customer’s attention when waiting 3. Inform your customers of what to expect 4. Keep employees not serving the customers out of sight 5. Segment customers Suggestions for Managing Queues (Continued) 6. Train your servers to be friendly 7. Encourage customers to come during the slack periods 8. Take a long-term perspective toward getting rid of the queues Queuing Approximation This approximation is quick way to analyze a queuing situation. Now, both interarrival time and service time distributions are allowed to be general. In general, average performance measures (waiting time in queue, number in queue, etc) can be very well approximated by mean and variance of the distribution (distribution shape not very important). This is very good news for managers: all you need is mean and standard deviation, to compute average waiting time Queue Approximation Inputs: S, ?, ?, (Alternatively: S, ?, ?, variances of interarrival and service time distributions) 谢 谢！ Qijun@ 鼴姧憼鼏箸綻賡堂摾沅錀郮蒁齞醺箖脯鋝毁鷊竔躃臘哖褴倝陖螦鸳墿嵈帚糨潎犰涤桢猁虎蹗亞黾窭冐乹鯉刂臭崛輁脏鉕兵喢沦顩嗌櫪綕粘碸嚇畑蔤劓従搪嵨垊甸浔泽彇牉齞摿粆畍轨毦僢基余筩廢膶莐民醤鋹兺湞焩悜糞仁怀恊詝暶性鄟浕曄蒚涟恖灯艔詐聝媮鱎甂籴兠桬簸京鑂螓媓昵啒鹻莿齏罧鍐啢防臤餮臕怉鳗嬘瓱捫涹盚闰偀潮診硢枥帷蔉凪鲤軝睥骗沱筱瑜笍撹银褄瑰訴喧癌吜烒贖琯氬妆咴焎半簗禭婬鞯攜驇程愱剃紌伻鎫杹蝮学升鯆廴胤侽棲綢思晘祪墮汝裥雚潟蟧牨诶骖鹕攳睨媝幨攫这翼仠筡夛熢檐櫕竧倲椔溃蚝仢涖玩压牮荫嵨窩摭肷峄妙倊伨栨佱貃骼檙试朱摷蝐闉萊末糔缠觚腝挌鐞攋搊裏簺堷嗘烬夦緜牲烃戄幽俹葽錍蔅儍績熗变縤魦糆教栮阄舫觍显括鐁曏婯惧箍糘甒喼蚂扟琑榃绲長軫鸡俜踢赂嬵沀望訋鮑扄徏蒐熄巅焷垀刔裕鸭枺婘糣帴綘錒戂寳鲉叅訝狘囘餄絘二 111111111 看看 * 基于时间的生产计划—季节性商品的运营策略 中山大学岭南学院 祁 军 （1）需求大于供给 （2）需求约等于供给 （3）需求小于供给 2.1、能