地区中长期电力负荷预测模型及应用研究-工业工程专业论文.docx

摘要 摘 要 I I 摘 要 电力负荷预测是电力系统规划决策、经济运行的前提和基础，尤其对于电力 部门来说，是一项重要的工作。电力负荷预测的准确程度对电力系统安全经济运 行和本地区国民经济发展，都具有重要意义。论文根据蒙西包头地区的概况，“十 一五”期间的社会经济的发展情况，地区电力负荷的历史分析，进行地区电网“十 二五”期间的负荷预测。 电力负荷预测要考虑影响电力负荷的因素。影响电力负荷预测的因素有很 多，其中，产业结构对电力需求量的影响不可忽视。产业结构在国民经济结构中 占主导地位，而电力工业又是国民经济发展的基础产业，是社会发展和人们生活 水平改善的基础。电力需求与产业结构的关系是相互作用、相互影响的：一方面， 国民经济的发展，可以带动产业结构的变化，另一方面，产业结构的变化又会引 起其他各产业部门对电力需求的变化，进而影响电力工业的发展。 考虑到产业结构对电力负荷的影响，本文在分析了蒙西包头地区产业结构与 电力需求关系的基础上，结合电力负荷预测模型，建立了地区中长期电力负荷预 测模型。本文应用支持向量机以及灰色预测模型对蒙西包头市的电力负荷进行预 测，对比两种方法预测的结果进行分析，得出较为精确的符合该地区的中长期电 力负荷预测方法。精度检验的结果表明，本文采用的两种方法预测结果都比较好， 但是相对灰色预测模型来说，支持向量机预测方法的预测模型精度更高，预测结 果更为可靠，因此更适合用于中长期电力负荷的预测。 关键词：中长期电力负荷预测；支持向量机方法；灰色预测；产业结构 AB ABSTRACT II II Abstract Power system load forecasting is an important work of the power sector, is the premise and foundation of economic operation and the power system planning, decision-making, the accuracy of the load forecast is of great significance to the development of the national economy and the safety economic operation of power systems in regions. According to the general situation of West Baotou area, and the development of social economy in eleven five Year Plan period, under regional power load history, analyze regional power grid load forecasting in” Twelfth Five Year Plan period. There are many factors affecting the power load, but the industrial structure has an influence on demand of electricity, which can not be ignored. Industrial structure occupies the dominant position in the national economy, and the electric power industry is not only the premise of the national economy development, but also the basis for social development and peoples living standards improved. Relationship between electric power demand and the industrial structure, the development of the national economy, lead to the change of industrial structure, which caused changes in all sectors to power demand, and then influence the development on electric power industry. Considering the influence of industrial structure on the power load, ba