合肥市房地产周期波动分析-产业经济学专业论文.docxVIP

i 摘 要 改革开放以来中国经济 30 年的高速增长以及土地政策的日益宽松，为房地 产业的蓬勃发展提供了肥沃的土壤，房地产业如今对于 GDP 的贡献率达 5%以上， 已经成长为国民经济的支柱产业。由于房地产业与宏观经济联系密切，房地产业 的发展往往跟随着宏观经济的景气循环而波动。为了寻找我国房地产业周期波动 的特征和规律，进入 90 年代以来，房地产周期的理论研究开始兴起，试图为衡 量房地产业及国民经济的发展状况提供参考坐标，为制定宏观调控政策平缓和驾 驭波动提供理论依据。 由于产业关联作用明显，房地产业对于区域经济的发展同样有着重要贡献。 合肥市作为新兴的工业化城市，其房地产业虽然形成历史较短，市场尚不成熟， 但发展速度较快，正处于快速扩张周期。2005 年，合肥市政府提出“141”（一 主城、四组团、一个滨湖新区）的城市空间发展战略构想，十一五期间进入全面 建设落实阶段，合肥市房地产业迎来了新的历史机遇。研究合肥市房地产的周期 波动，对于政府宏观调控及投资者的投资行为而言，均有一定的借鉴意义。 本文以房地产周期理论为理论依据，选取了 1993 年至 2008 年合肥市房地产 业的相关统计数据，建立起合肥市房地产业发展状况的评估体系；综合运用扩散 指数及主成分合成综合指数描绘了合肥市房地产业 16 年间的波动形态，通过与 全国房地产业波动周期的比较分析，探讨了合肥市房地产业发展的特征及规律； 最后根据分析结论提出相应的宏观调控政策建议。 关键词：房地产；周期波动；扩散指数；主成分分析 ii Abstract The 30 years ’rapid growth of Chinese economy since the adoption of reform and opening up policy and increasingly liberal land policy provide a fertile ground for the real estate industry.Now the real estate industry’s contribution rate to the national economy has been more than 5%,it has become the pillar industry for national economy.Because of the close connection between real estate industry and the macro-economy, the real estate industry often fluctuates with macroeconomic business. In order to find out the features and laws of the real estate industry, provide a reference standard for measuring development situation of the national economy and real estate industry, theoretical studies of the real estate cycle came into rising since the 1990s,trying to provide a theoretical basis to moderate and control the fluctuation. Because of the obvious production-related association, the real estate industry make an important contribution to the regional economic development too. Hefei is an emerging industrialized city, although its real estate industry just has a short history and its market is not yet mature, the development is very fast.In 2005, Hefei municipal Government adduced the 141 (a main city, four groups,and a Binhu District)—the concept of urban spatial development strategy.During the Eleventh Fi