模型估计方法.doc

路内停车影响下非机动车流速度模型?收稿日期：2014-12-18基金项目：国家自然科学基金项目51408321）。作者 ?收稿日期：2014-12-18 基金项目：国家自然科学基金项目51408321）。 作者简介：叶晓飞（1985-），男，讲师，博士。 通讯作者：叶晓飞，yexiaofei@nbu.edu.cn 叶晓飞1，陈峻2，冯树民3，邓社军2 （1.宁波大学 海运学院，315211 宁波；2.东南大学 交通学院，210096 南京；3.哈尔滨工业大学 交通科学与工程学院，150090 哈尔滨） 摘要：为了解析设置于物理分隔非机动车道的路内停车对非机动车交通运行的影响，将行程时间比拟成生存分析中持续期，构建了基于风险持续期模型的非机动车流行程时间和速度模型；提炼和筛选表征路内停车影响的因素，包括非机动车道有效宽度、驶入和驶出事件数、时间障碍率、电动自行车和自行车流量等作为协变量，纳入到模型当中，并利用实测数据标定了模型参数。结果表明，模型估计的速度分布特征量化表征了路内停车相关因素的影响效应，模型具有较好拟合优度和预测效果；驶入和驶出事件数、自行车所占比例和时间障碍率对速度具有负效应影响；而非机动车道有效宽度对速度具有正效应影响，随着有效宽度的增加，非机动车流速度降低的风险减小。 关键词：交通工程；路内停车；非机动车流；行程时间；速度 中图分类号：U491.7 文献标识码：A Model of non-motorized vehicle flow speed influenced by curbside parking YE Xiaofei1, CHEN Jun2，FENG Shumin3, DENG Shejun2 （1. School of Maritime and Transportation, Ningbo University, 315211 Ningbo, Chnia; 2. Transportation College, Southeast University, 210096 Nanjing, Chnia; 3. School of Transportation Science and Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, 150090 Harbin, Chnia） Abstract: To analyze the effect of non-motorized vehicle flow caused by curbside parking on segregated bicycle lane, this study draws an analogy between travel time and duration data of survival analysis. A proportional hazard-based duration model is proposed to establish travel time and speed models of non-motorized vehicle flow. The speed model extracts and screens the influential factors related to curbside parking, including the effective width of bicycle lane, the inbound and outbound parking maneuvers, the time influence rate, electric bike and bicycle flow and so on. The parameters of model are calibrated by using the survey data. The results show the distribution characteristic of speed estimated by the model would give a quantitative analysis of the influence of curbside parking; the model could pass goodness of fit tests and make prediction effectively; the events of inbound and outbound parking maneuvers,