基于SLEUTH模型的城镇建设用地扩展与多情景模拟研究——以芜湖市为例-土地资源管理专业论文.docxVIP

Research for scenarios simulation of future urban growth Based on SLEUTH model in the center of Wuhu Abstract Since the 20th century, with the rapid development of social economy, the sharp increase of population and urbanization process accelerating. Study on prediction, extended spatial evolution and growth driving force state simulation of future urban expansion, it has become a research hotspot of city economic geography, land resources management and other related fields. How to guide and regulate of urban construction land expansion effectively in the urban extension based on the analysis of the evolution, control the negative effects of its denotation expansion, it has important significance to promote urban and improve the land intensive utilization degree of compact development, at the same time, provide the reference to spatial structure, land use planning theory and methods to improve the city. The study area is the center of Wuhu and take 1996, 2000, 2005, 2009 four land use status data as the data source. In the basic research on the theory and methods of, from three aspects which are morphological changes from urban land expansion, urban land expansion drive and urban construction land expansion multiple scenarios predicted to expound the logic structure of urban land expansion simulation studies. On this basis, using SLEUTH model, using different calibration scheme for model calibration, through comparative analysis to choose the best scheme and get the best growth coefficient value for simulation and prediction, simulation of different policies and development under the condition of urban construction land expansion in the future. From four aspects which are the number and the expansion of consumption, morphological characteristics, the expand space distribution and landscape characteristic value index to evaluate the prediction results, and puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations. This paper is divided into five chapters: Chapter1: Bri