基于SLEUTH模型的银川平原城市扩展研究-人文地理学专业论文.docxVIP

兰州大学硕l：学{々论文 基于SLEUTH模型的银川_甲原城Ih扩展研究 Abstract Yinchuan Plain is located in the north of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region and is a fertile fiat oasis，in which the most important cities of Ningxia，such as the city of Yinchuan、Shizuishan、Wuzhong et a1．，lie，and these cities are crucial for the socio·economic development of Ningxia,SO we have to ensure and promote their sustainable development．Using SLEUTH model，this thesis simulated the urban growth process in Yinchuan Plain over the past three decades，and the results of the simulation proved the SLEUTH model’S applicability in this region，and then two different scenarios were set to predict the urban development in Yinchuan Plain in future．Combined with its own characteristics in Yinchuan Plain，the dynamic mechanism of urban growth was discussed，and some suggestions were proposed for the future urban development．The main contents and conclusions of this paper were as follows： (1)Remote sensing images was the main data of this study．Combined with DEM、 city planning maps and other related data．input data layers were obtained for running SLEUTH model through GIS．By the comparison between Lee—Sallee and OSM index calibration program，it Was found that Lee-Sallee index calibration program was more suitable for this study．According to the results of Lee—Sallee index calibration，this thesis simulated the urban growth and land use change of Yinchuan Plain in recent thirty years，and it was found that rapid urban expansion encroached a lot of agricultural land，which was about 235．4km2 and Was up to 78．1％ofnew urban land． (2)Using the best value of growth coefficients which were got through Lee—Sallee index cal ibration，two scenarios were set to predict the furore urban expansion in Yinchuan Plain．Different results of the prediction on these two scenarios showed that urban planning was very useful to guide urban development．Under the guidance of urban planning，the development of cities would be more r