变化环境下河川径流中长期规律与预测分析——以陕西省典型流域为例.pdfVIP

期表现为南北短，中间长的基本规律；③与气候因子的响应关系方面，关中地区的径流 序列与ENSO 事件响应最紧密，陕北次之，陕南最差；④从未来径流的走势看，关中和 陕北地区径流将可能会持续衰减。 关键词：水文学及水资源，径流规律，径流预测，变化环境，陕西 III Abstract Recently, due to intensive human activities and climate change, hydrological regime in our country has changed significantly, triggering a series of problems, such as water resources shortage, water pollution, water ecological deterioration and sedimentation problems and so forth, which greatly influence the healthy development of regional social economy. Therefore, thoroughly understand hydrological regime of stream flow and grasp regional water resources development are of great importance to regional water resources planning and management, design of hydraulic engineering activities and water balancing between ecosystems and human demands in the present and future. It is well known that under the influence of climate conditions and complex underlying surface conditions, hydrological processes in natural conditions are extremely complex and variable, frequently showing complex nonlinear, non-stationary and multi-temporal scale characteristics. However, human activities greatly alter the hydrological regime of rivers and add complexities to river hydrologic processes, which brings in a huge challenge to scientific and accurate understanding of stream flow changes. Taking Shaanxi province as the study area, adopting various nonlinear analysis methods and non-stationary data processing methods to study hydrological variation regime, multi temporal scale characteristics and responses to climate factors in Han River Basin, Wei River Basin and Wuding River Basin, and analyze their spatial variation laws. Besides, we established the long term hydrological