基于SWOT-AHP及多元回归分析的民勤文化产业发展-兰州大学学报.PDF

兰州大学学报: 自然科学版, 2017, 53(3) / 6 月 Journal of Lanzhou University ：Natural Sciences，2017 ，53(3) / June 基于SWOT-AHP 及多元回归分析的民勤县 文化产业发展 韩 杰, 陈兴鹏, 庞家幸 兰州大学 资源环境学院, 兰州 730000 摘 要：运用SWOT-AHP模型和多元回归分析模型, 对民勤县文化产业的适宜性、影响因素进行全 面分析. 结果显示: 民勤县适宜发展文化产业, 优势和机遇占有较高权重, 突出的发展条件是资源优 势和政策机遇, 脆弱的生态环境和激烈的市场竞争也不容忽视. 良好的文化产业发展环境和落后的 发展水平之间存在不一致性, 文化产业发展存在问题; 文化产业投资和从业人数与文化产业发展呈 显著正相关关系, 成为主要影响因子, 前者的影响力小于后者, 文化产业消费因素的拉动作用疲软, 发展过程中存在投资不足、消费滞后和高素质劳动力缺乏等问题. 关键词：文化产业; SWOT-AHP模型; 多元线性回归分析; 西北绿洲区 中图分类号：K902 文献标识码：A 文章编号: 0455-2059(2017)03-0322-07 DOI: 10.13885/j.issn.0455-2059.2017.03.006 Development of cultural industry in Minqin County based on SWOT-AHP and regression analysis Han Jie, Chen Xing-peng, Pang Jia-xing College of the Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China Abstract: The development of cultural industry of Minqin County was analyzed, the suitability of its cul- tural industry, the influences there on and problems there of with the SWOT-AHP and multiple regression analysis models. The results showed that Minqin County was suitable for the development of cultural in- dustry and its advantages as well as opportunities had a higher weight. Outstanding conditions including resource advantages and policy opportunities, its fragile ecological environment and the fierce market competition could not be ignored. The contradiction between the good cultural industry environment and the backward development level had proved that there had been problems with the development of its cultural industry. The regression analysis results of the culture industry correlation factors and cultural industry showed that cultural industry investment and workers had become the main influence factors. The