城市轨道交通建设时机理论与方法研究交通运输规划与管理专业论文.docxVIP

已往的研究相比，该模型考虑票价对于城市轨道交通使用者出行费用的影响，反 已往的研究相比，该模型考虑票价对于城市轨道交通使用者出行费用的影响，反 映了有无轨道交通项目情况下人均拥堵成本的变化，有助于分析人口增长率、项 目建成后人口规模、轨道交通使用者出行费用的变化占收入比例、社会折现率与 项目建成时间五个因素的变化对于投资决策的影响。 5．建立城市轨道交通项目建设时机选择的实物期权随机变量模型。该模型将 投资价值最大化的目标分为三种：经营型价值，经营型与直接引导型价值(以货 币形式计量的社会经济效益)，经营型与引导型价值(考虑土地规划引导作用的投 资前景值)，运用建设时机影响函数、蒙特卡洛模拟与OptQuest优化技术分别求解 这三种目标下的最优建设时机，反映社会效益对于建设时机的影响，为有针对性 地选择城市轨道交通项目的发展策略提供依据。算例分析表明，考虑城市轨道交 通项目建设的社会效益(直接引导型价值)与单纯考虑项目的经济效益(经营型 价值)的最佳建设时机的计算结果不同。 关键词：轨道交通；建设时机；实物期权；几何布朗运动；投资公平性；社会效 益；公交导向发展 分类号：u491；F570 AB AB STRACT A growing numbers of cities in China are planning and preparing to construct rail transit projects which need large scale investment and high opermion cost in recent years．Premature construction might lead rail transit projects to low utilization rate which is unreasonable from the economic angle and increase pressures of paying loan and opermion subsidy．However，rail transit proj ects miss the best demand period and cannot meet the demand of city development in the case of constructing too late． Therefore，this dissertation studied theory and methodology of construction timing for rail transit projects，which lays a theoretical foundation for rail transit development planning and decision—making． Firstly,the characteristics of rail transit investment and option to defer investment were analyzed．The geometric brownian motion Was used to describe the uncertainty factors of rail transit investment and deduce the influence functions of construction timing．Secondly,the entropy method and system theory were applied to confirm the construction timing type in Beijing．The improved grey uniform analysis(IGUA)Was built up to analyze factors affecting transit ridership in Beij ing．Thirdly,the construction consequence Was evaluated from the aspects of operation and network structure effects， land use situation of transit oriented development(TOD)and ascription equity．Finally, the construction timing theoretic model to ease congestion based on real option Was set up．The st