堤防工程风险评价方法研究水工结构工程专业论文.docxVIP

AbstractAbstract Abstract Abstract The cause of levee risk is complex．At present，no ideal methods are found to evaluate levee risk．Based on the risk analysis model of the levees，the method of assessment iS studied in this P印er．The main contents are described as follows： (1)The risk factors of the levees material，construction，operation，and daily maintenance etc are analyzed．Taking typical levee accident model as example，levee risk factors are mined，and then network system of risk factors analysis iS established． (2)The qualitative risk factor is quantified by introducing blind data．Index consistent problem of judgment matrix is improved in analytic hierarchy process by using G I to calculate weighting．Based on the quantification and weighting of risk factors，the risk analysis model of risk factors combination iS established． (3)Based on general reliability theory,finite element calculation model and rigid body limit equilibrium method，the risk analysis models of levee overtopping，seepage failure and slide instability failure are constructed individually．The precision of random risk analysis model of seepage failure is improved by using incipient fault value． (4)The IOSS calculation of levee failure impact from lOSS of life．economy and environment are analyzed．And then the criterion of loss severity degree is discussed accordingly．Finally,the risk assessment criterion is presented． (5)According to certain levee section of yellow river，the risk degree is analyzed． On the basis of the analysis result，a preliminary evaluation for the levee is made． Keywords：levee construction，risk analysis，stochastic risk， analytic hierarchy process(AI-IP)，risk assessment 学位论文独创性声明： 学位论文独创性声明： 本人所呈交的学位论文是我个人在导师指导下进行的研究工作 及取得的研究成果。尽我所知，除了文中特别加以标注和致谢的地方 外，论文中不包含其他人已经发表或撰写过的研究成果口与我一同工 作的同事对本研究所做的任何贡献均已在论文中作了明确的说明并 表示了谢意。如不实，本人负全部责任。 论文作者(签名)： 1 塑w诏年 V月心El 学位论文使用授权说明 河海大学、中国科学技术信息研究所、国家图书馆、中国学术期 刊(光盘版)电子杂志社有权保留本人所送交学位论文的复印件或电 子文档，可以采用影印、缩印或其他复制手段保存论文。本人电子文 档的内容和纸质论文的内容相一致。除在保密期内的保密论文外，允 许