城市交通需求与供给效果的模型分析港口海岸及近海工程专业论文.docxVIP

大连理工大学博士学位论文Model 大连理工大学博士学位论文 Model Analyses ofUrban Traffic Demand and its Sl!／)ply Effetcs ● Firstly,the coordi戚on between land-use and urban I／ansport system is reviewed and discussed in this paper．It is the private Iransport system and the public transport system that constitute urban I／ansport system．Aider analyzing the di伍erence between the private transport and the pubfic transport oriented development mode．we make a conclusion that a optimized laansport structure can be acquired if We get a dymmie equilibrium．Then in the view of the issue of the urban development and the demand of private Iransport and the pubfie Iramport,a case study is conducted． This study established the forecast model of urban car ownership in terms of wansportation demand and environment capacity,analyzed the economy effect ofroad蛐c based Oil economy and diseconomy aspects induced by car induslry and car use respectively,to provide theory and practical base for sustainable Iransportafion system．In this model，a macro-level forecast model of urban car ownership based on artificial neural network technique is developed in the first．To； simulate the non-linear relationship between ealownership and its effect factors，the main factors are analyzed,and seven input vectors，such船per-capita GDP，lramit network density，road network density,car priee／mcome,palrol price and exterllal disturbing factors,are taken aS independent variables and car ownership is taken as output variable to establish the forecast model based 013．BP neural network technique．Here，external variable，including some affecting factors which could not be measured,is input to the model to simulate the sudden effect induced by them． Secondly,taking自ra伍c environment load into account,the maximum urban car ownership model conswained by transportation environment capacity is developed．nle purpose is t0 opdmize the traf五c distribulion and get the maximum Calownership constrained by environment capacity． A hi-level programming problem