基于地面沉降的风暴潮等级评估与灾情评价-计算数学专业论文.docxVIP

ABSTRACT In China，the storm surge has occurred throughout the year.At the same time，along with the intensified exploitation of groundwater ，the land subsidence of co削al areas occurred seriously.The land subsidence changes the tide level and seriously influences the existing disaster defensive system. ‘ Taking the BinHai area of TianJin for example ，we made a forecast eval- uation of the degree of storm surge.Taking Morakoe for example，we made a 句 evaluation of the level of storm surge dis制ter.The purpose to do these was to give the decision-makers a reasonable basis of defense，reconstruction and disaster 1088. The for.ecast evaluation of degr明 of storm surge was based on the land subsidence and we 山ed the artificial neural network method to pr。 dict it.First ，we made an analysis of correlation and chose close factors contact with the degr臼 of storm surge as the factors of training samples of the ar- tificial neural network.Then，we input the sample data into the network and trained.Finally ，we used the storm surge of No.24 as simulation data and got the error between simulation results and actual value wω0.07%. We 山ed the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate the storm surge disaster.We set six levels of storm surge disaster and chose five factors as the main evaluation object.Taking the data of Morakoe 幽 the simulation data，we got the final result. The disaster level of Morakoe w剧 W民 6，which was the rare level. ‘ KEY WORDS: storm s山ge ; land subsidence ; artificial neural net- work ; fuzzy comprehensive evaluation 目录 第一章绪论 1 1.1 研究背景及意义 1 1.1.1 风暴潮简介 1 1.1.2 风暴潮形成原因... 3 1.1.3 本文研究意义 5 1.2 国内外研究现状 5 民 1.3 论文的主要内容 6 、 第二章风暴潮灾害等级评估 8 2.1 BP 神经网络模型的基本原理. 8 2.1.1 人工神经网络简介 8 2.1.2 BP 人工神经网络模型. 11 2.2 实例分析 14 2.2.1关联度分析 16 2.2.2 灾度预测的数据模拟 20 第三章风暴潮致灾情况的模糊综合评价 22 3.1 棋糊综合评价原理及特点 22 3.1.1模糊评价法原理 22 3.1.2 模糊评价法特点... 23 3.2 模糊综合评价的数学模型 24 3.3 实例分析 25 3.3.1 建立灾情评价模型 25 3.3.2 数据仿真 30 第四章结束语 33 参考文