中国计量经济史研究动态11.pdf

总第 11 期 Total :Volume Ⅺ 2011 年辑 第 3 期 Volume Ⅲ 2011 中国计量经济史研究动态 Developments of Cliometrics Research in China 学术通讯·友情赠阅 广东外语外贸大学中国计量经济史研究中心 China Centre for Cliometrics Studies GDUFS 广州·2011 年 7 月 July 2011 Guangzhou 《中国计量经济史研究动态》2011 年第 3 期 目录与内容提要 1.对中国居民储蓄存款影响因素的实证分析（1978~1996）刘 巍3 An Empirical Analysis of Factors Affecting Chinese Household Savings: 1978-1996 Liu Wei 内容提要：在改革开放的头十五年里，中国处于供给约束型经济态势态势之下，居民储蓄存 款是中国投资的重要来源。本文用数量分析方法考察了 1978~1996 年中国居民储蓄存款的 主要影响因素，分析结果表明，当其它条件不变时，国民收入每变动 1%，居民储蓄存款额 就同向变动 1.4%，呈现强弹性；物价指数每变动 1%民储蓄存款额就同向变动0.85%，弹性 较弱；证券市场资金吸纳率每变动 1%，居民储蓄存款额就反向变动 0.028%，弹性极弱。 Abstract: In the first fifteen years of economic reform, China had been experienced supply-constraint economic framework. During the period, household deposit savings are important sources of China’s investment. By quantitative analysis methods to investigate the main factors affecting Chinese household saving from 1978 to 1996, results of the paper provide strong supports that the two variables are strongly elastic as others constant, which shows every 1% movement in national income causes 1.4% household deposits in the same direction. And consuming price index shows positive correlation with household saving but less strongly elastic, which indicates every 1% movement in consuming price index just positively cause 0.85% of household deposits. Furthermore,