结合季节模型和小波-非参数自回归模型的中国入境游人数的预测-应用数学专业论文.docxVIP

AbstractAbstract Abstract Abstract With the continuous development of the economy,and the deepened openness in China， Chinese inbound tourism market has developed steadily and rapidly．However，which Call also be effected by many factors，such disease，disasters，political and economic， which demand US forecast the number of inbound tourists more accurate when we study the tourism．The aims of this article is to establish a mathematical model to predict the number of Chinese inbound tourists，which call provide some advanced guidance for the market decision makers． This article firstly introduces the development of Chinese inbound tourism market in the period of January 2001 to December 2013．And according to the number of inbound tourists of every month，we built three models to do the prediction．The first model was the Seasonal Model which mainly used the multiplicative seasonal model to do the prediction． Then we combined the wavelet analysis and nonparametric autoregressive together to make second model what Was the wavelet—nonparametric autoregressive model．Compared with the seasonal model，the wavelet—nonparametric autoregressive model has better prediction skill．In order to improve the seasonal model and the wavelet—nonparametric autoregressive model，we combined the above 2 models together，and built an optimal combination forecasting model with the optimal wei曲t．Through the comparison，we observed that the optimal combination forecasting model was better than others．So we can suggest the government and enterprise decision makers to use the optimal combination forecasting model when they would like to predict the number of Chinese inbound tourists The contribution of this paper lies in two parts we combine the wavelet analysis with nonparametric autoregressive to build the wavelet—nonparametric autoregressive II 万方数据 Abstractmodel，which Abstract model，which applied the wavelet—nonparametric autoregressive model to predict the number of Chinese inbound tourists at the fi