麦格理-印度-宏观经济-美元与卢比：横盘整理-20180131-7页.pdfVIP

INDIA India Economics Dollar weakness supporting rupee US$/INR: Moving sideways US trade weighted index, Index Jul 2011=100 70  Rupee has remained steady but underperformed in the context of EM 135 US$/INR, RS currencies: The INR has remained largely steady in 2018YTD, moving only 125 60 0.2% after gaining 6.4% in 2017. While at the margin macro stability concerns have risen as reflected by higher inflation, a wider trade deficit and steadily 115 50 elevated oil prices, a weaker USD has come to the rescue of the INR. 105 However the INR has underperformed in the context of EM currencies. 95 40  2018 to be marked by a trend of dollar weakness…: Our global team 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 7 1- 1- 1- 1- 1- 1- 1- 1- expects the dollar to remain on weak footing in 2018 (see Tax Reform Will Not l n y r r b n c u u a p a e a e J J M A M F J D Stop The Dollar Bear Market... - “America First” = weaker Greenback). As Source: CEIC, Bloomberg, Macquarie Research, January such we believe that dollar weakness and support from capital flows will keep 2018 the INR supported. Rupee has underperformed other EM  … and concerns on macro stability at the margin: However, at the same currencies in 2018YTD