新常态下PPP环保项目风险预警云模型研究.docxVIP

新常态下ppp环保项目风险预警云模型 研究 李娟芳何亚伯 许昌学院土木工程学院武汉大学土木建筑工程学院 摘要： 文章基于模糊-粗糙集理论和云模型理论构建了 PPP环保项口风险预警模型，对 ppp环保项n而临的风险因素及评价方法进行归类整理，报告了冃前ppp项冃风 险识别与评价存在的不足之处，通过采用文献分析、理论研究、访谈和实地调研 相结合的方法，展开对我国PPP环保项目风险因素的调查研究，提出了包含10 个一级风险指标、30个二级风险指标的风险预警指标体系，并以武汉新洲区项 目为例分析验证了模型的实践性。模型结果表明:新洲区项目总体处于屮等风险 等级，其中，融资可获性、政策法规保障、政府监管体制不健全等方而的风险水 平较高，需重点关注并制定相应的防控应对机制。据此提出了相应的政策建议： 开拓多元化融资渠道；完善政府监管体制；建立合理的风险分担机制；明确合作人 之间的权利与义务;提高合作信用等，以期实现我国ppp环保项目的成功运营。 关键词: ppp项目；环保项目；融资模式;风险识别； 作者简介：李娟芳（1986-），女，河南平顶山人，博士，主要从事工程项目管 理研究； 作者简介：何亚伯（1956-）,男，湖南临湘人，教授，博士生导师，主要从事 工程项目管理研究。 收稿日期:2017-08-15 基金：2016年度河南省科技厅科技攻关项目（162102310125） The Risk Forewarning Cloud Model of PPP Environmental Protection in the New Normal LI Juan-fang HE Ya-bo School of Civil Engineering, Xuchang University; School of Civil and Architectural Engineering, Wuhan University; Abstract： Based on fuzzy-rough set theory and cloud model theory it builds the risk forewarning model of PPP projects of environmental protection, categorizes the risk factors and the evaluation method for PPP projects of environmental protection, reports the shortcomings for risk identification and evaluation of PPP projects at present, uses the combi ning met hod of litera turc em eilysis，theor cti cal research, interviews and field research, carries out research on PPP projects of environmental ptotection in our country, it puts forward risk forewarning indexes system containing 10 level index and 30 secondary risk index, the fuzzy rough set theory and cloud model theory are also introduced to build a risk forewarning model of PPP projects of environmentai protcction. Based on the Xinzhou project in Wuhan, we demonstrate the model s practicality, the study discloses that the project is in medium level of risk, but the risks of availability of financing、 perfection of policies and regulations、 defective of government regulation system are grievous that need more focus and pre vention mechanism. Based on t his, it includes: exploring diversified financing channels; im