数字经济换道超车中国电子商务发展迎来新机遇.docxVIP

数字经济“换道超车”中国电子商务发 展迎来新机遇 蒋媛媛 上海社会科学院应用经济研究所 Lane-changing and overtaking: digital economy brings opportunities for Chinese E-commerce development Abstract： According to the report of the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, focus on deepening supply-side structural reform as the main line， build a modern economic system， promotc furthcT integration of the Internet, big data, artificial intelligence and real economy, we will cultivate new growth areas and form new drivers in the fields of high-end consumption, innovative leadership, green low-carbon, sharing eco no my, modern suppl y cha in and huma n capital servi ces. At present, the digital economy is steadily leading the dcvelopment of emerging industries, and has become an important engine for Chinas economic innovation and transformation. Our study evaluates the macro-influence of Chinas digital economy, and try to draw its outline, that is till 2030, Chinas digital economy is expected to exceed 150 tri 11 ion CNY, accounts for about 80% of China s GDP, achieves full intcgration with the economic, social and environmentdl development; China s digital economy is expected to outgrow the United States in 2026 to 2030 and grow into the world s Internet power; By then, China will fully enter the digital society. Besides, its worth mentioning that E-commerce plays an important role in the development of digital economy, while the later provides proper hardware and software development environment for e-commerce. 近期，上海社科院应用经济研究所课题组发布了《中国数字经济宏观影响力评估 及中长期税收政策走向设计》阶段性成果，第一次系统地阐述了数字经济的发展 趋势，并对屮国数字经济的未来发展做了全景式展望。 十九大报告指岀，深化供给侧结构性改革，建设现代化经济体系，推动互联网、 大数据、人工智能和实体经济深度融合，在中高端消费、创新引领、绿色低碳、 共享经济、现代供应链、人力资本服务等领域培育新增长点、形成新动能。当前, 数字经济正稳步快速引领新兴产业发展，成为屮国经济创新转型发展的重要推 动力。 近期，上海社科院应用经济研究所课题组发布《中国数字经济宏观影响力评估及 中长期税收政策走向设计》（以下简称报告）阶段性成果，第一次系统地阐述了 数字经济的发展趋势，并对中国数字经济的未来发展做了全景式展望。 报告认为，到2030年，屮国数字经济有望迈过150万亿元大关，实现与经济社 会环境多个领域的全面融合，数字经济占GDP比重达到80%左右，届时，中国将 全面进入数字社会。 报告预测，中国数字经济规模有望在2026年~2030年间超越美国，成长为世界 互联网强国。 据报告测算，2017年，