基于数据挖掘的短期负荷预测-电气工程专业论文.docxVIP

摘 摘 要 万方数据 万方数据 摘 要 电力系统短期负荷预测是电力系统的重要工作之一，高精度的预测需要用 优秀的预测模型和预测方法来保证而且还要全面考虑影响因素。近些年来，专 家学者们提出了很多把智能算法应用到电力系统负荷预测中的实例，也有几种 智能算法结合使用的情况，使得电力系统负荷预测得到了快速的发展，预测精 度也有大幅度的提高。本文将数据理论引入电力系统负荷预测中，使用数据挖 掘中相关算法构造短期负荷预测模型。 数据挖掘理论是一个相对较新鲜的概念，近几年才慢慢应用于电力系统的 相关方面，使用数据挖掘理论中相关算法对负荷数据进行分析和整合，而不是 只使用单一方法对数据进行的分析与预测，这样可以更好对各个算法比较，得 出负荷预测较优算法。本文使用数据挖掘中的多元线性回归、逐步回归、神经 网络进行预测，还采用了层次分析法，而且还将非常经典的模拟退火引入到神 经网络模型中，本文在考虑负荷预测影响因素时不仅考虑了历史负荷数据，还 考虑了温度的影响，创新的地方在于考虑了 PM2.5，最后再结合算例进行验证， 即可得到预测比较结果。结果表明，预测精度完全满足要求，并且各算法所得 误差平方和对比之后就能得出所采用算法当中的最优预测算法。 关键词：负荷预测；数据挖掘；层次分析；神经网络 I AB ABSTACT ABSTACT Power system short-term load forecasting is one of the important works of the power system, high precision of prediction need good prediction model and the prediction method to guarantee but also to consider all factors. In recent years, experts and scholars put forward many of the intelligent algorithm is applied to power system load forecasting example, there are also several intelligent algorithms used in combination, make obtained the rapid development of power system load forecasting, prediction accuracy has improved significantly. This paper introduces the theory of data in the power system load forecasting, the use of short-term load forecasting algorithms in data mining structure model. Data mining theory is a relatively new concept, in recent years gradually applied in the relevant aspects of power system, using the algorithms in data mining theory to analyze and integrate load data, rather than using only a single method on the data of load forecasting, so we can better is, for each algorithm has a better load forecasting algorithm are obtained. In this paper, using multiple linear regression in data mining and neural network to forecast, also used the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and will also be very classic simulated annealing is introduced into the model, in this article, when considering load forecasting factors not only consider the historical load data, also considered the effect of tem