毕业论文--城市车流量灰色预测技术研究.docx

湖南大学毕业设计(论文) 第PAGE \* MERGEFORMATII 页 HUNAN UNIVERSITY 毕业设计(论文) 论文题目 城市车流量灰色预测技术 研究 学生姓名 学生学号 专业班级 自动化1103班 学院名称 电气与信息工程学院 指导老师 学院院长 2015 年5 月 30日 湖南大学毕业设计(论文) 第PAGE \* MERGEFORMATI页 摘 要 随着我国城市化进程的加快，城市道路车辆的日益增多，交通拥堵和交通事故频发,严重影响了人们的出行效率。为了及时了解路况，准确及时地检测非正常拥堵情况，做好交通控制与疏导,对城市车流量的准确预测至关重要.城市车流量具有非线性和不确定性的特点,运用灰色系统理论预测模型对车流量情况进行预测.灰色系统预测属于全因素非线性拟合外推类方法，在形式上是单数列预测，只运用研究对象自身的时间序列建立模型，与其相关联的其他因素没有参与建模，这正是灰的体现。 本文章选用长沙市某路段某一天8:00-18:00时间段每隔5分钟的车流量数据共120个作为原始数据,分为6组每组20个数据,依托MATLAB平台,运用灰色预测模型,做好预测精度的检验，对车流量依次进行外推预测，得出科学的预测值,做出交通安全规划,改善城市的交通通行环境，提高人民的出行效率。 关键词:城市车流量;灰色模型;预测 Study on the grey prediction?technology of city?traffic Abstract With the acceleration of urbanization in our country, the increasing number of vehicles in the urban roads, traffic congestion and traffic accidents, serious impact on the efficiency of peoples travel. In order to understand the road in time, accurate timely detection of non normal congestion, do a good job in traffic control and guidance, traffic flow of urban, and accurate prediction is essential. Urban traffic has characteristics of nonlinearity and uncertainty, the forecast model to forecast the traffic flow of using grey system theory. Grey system prediction is of nonlinear fitting extrapolation method, in the form is single sequence prediction, use only the research object itself time series model is established, and its associated with other factors not involved in modeling, which is embodiment of ash. This article selected a section of Changsha City a day 8:00 to 18:00 time every 5 minutes of traffic flow data. A total of 120 as the original data, divided into 6 groups (n = 20) data, based on the MATLAB platform, using the grey forecasting model, good prediction accuracy of inspection, turn on traffic flow are predicted by extrapolation, scientific prediction value is obtained, make traffic safety planning, improvement of urban traffic environ