北非地区海-陆热力差异与夏季江淮流域旱涝的关系.DOC

北非地区海-陆热力差异与夏季江淮流域旱涝的关系 赵 勇 钱永甫 南京大学大气科学系，南京, 210093 摘 要 基于NCEP/NCAR月均再分析资料和中国743站降水资料，根据夏季江淮流域51 a(1954—2004年)区域旱涝指数的年代际变化特征，确定北非地区作为研究的关键区。分析发现，关键区的地表温度异常在冬季具有较好的持续性，冬季北大西洋涛动是导致这种异常持续性的重要原因之一。通过对前冬北非地区地表温度和夏季江淮流域降水的SVD分析发现：当北非大陆地区偏冷，其西北侧的海区偏暖时，江淮流域夏季的降水将整体偏多；反之，江淮流域夏季的降水整体偏少。进一步研究发现，北非地区海陆地表温度异常的对比，要比其中单一海洋或陆地区域的异常对夏季江淮流域的旱涝有更好的指示能力。文中定义了一个海陆热力差异指数来表征这种地表温度异常的对比程度，该指数和夏季江淮流域旱涝指数呈较好的正相关关系，并且对夏季江淮流域极端旱涝年份也有较好的指示，认为该指数可以作为一个指示江淮流域整体旱涝事件的预报因子。 关键词 地表温度， 江淮流域，旱涝，异常对比，北非地区 资助课题：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)项目“我国南方致洪暴雨监测与预测的理论和方法研究 (2004CB418300)和国家自然科学基金面上项目“我国温度和降水气候极端事件及其与全球不均匀增暖的联系”。 作者简介：赵勇，主要从事气候变化和模拟的研究。E-mail:zy681314@126.com 中图法分类号 P434 +.4 2007-05- Relationships between the anomalies of sea-land thermal contrast in the northern Africa areas and the flood and drought in the Changjiang and Huaihe river areas in summer. ZHAO Yong QIAN Yongfu Department of Atmospheric Science，Nanjing University，Nanjing 210093， China Abstract The flood and drought in Changjiang and Huaihe river (Jianghuai) areas are frequent in summer, especially in July and June, so forecasting the summer flood and drought in Jianghuai areas is always one of key points investigated by meteorologists in China. The previous studies more focused on the skin temperature anomalies in a single area, and paid less attention to the connections between the anomalies of sea-land thermal contrast in northern Africa areas and the flood and drought in Jianghuai areas in summer. In this paper, we investigate such relationships and obtain some preliminary results.By use of the NCEP/NCAR monthly mean re analysis data and the rainfall data at 743 stations in China, the Northern Africa areas are selected as the key regions according to the interdecadal variability characteristics of the flood and drought index (FDI) during 51 years(1954-2004) in Jianghuai areas in summer. Correlation analysis show that the surface temperature anomalies in key region have good continuity in winter, and the winter North Atlantic Oscil