加入WTO对我国纺织品服装贸易的影响和对策-纺织工程专业论文.docxVIP

p《《9082摘 p《《9082 摘 要 (中国是世界f二最大的纺织品服装生产围与出口国，也是世界上最大 、 的纺织原料进U国。纺织品服装的生产和出口对于本国的经济发展和外 汇平衡来说至关蘑要，同时对世界纺织品服装的供求平衡和贸易格局亦 是举足轻重。在“多种纤维协定”的框架下，我国纺织品服装出口一直 受到歧视性待遇，处于不利的贸易环境。中国加入世贸组织以后，纺织 品服装贸易将获得相对公平的竞争环境，同时纺织业也面临着挑战心 ， 本文从国际国内宏观经济背景出发，回顾国际纺织品服装贸易发展 及其贸易体制的演变过程；运用计量经济学的方法及统计分析软件，对 加入世贸组织后，关税降低对我国纺织业的冲击作了定量测算和定性分 析；运用灰色系统理论及开发相关软件分析了我国纺织品服装生产和贸 易的影响因素；并根据以上研究结果及国际国内新的发展动向提出了政 策建议。 关键词：世贸组织、生产函数、灰色系统、灰色关联分析、纺织服装贸易、 影响因素、计量经济学、弹性 AbstractChina Abstract China is the world’S largest textiles producer and exporter,while it is also the largest importer of textile materials．The production and exportation of textiles are of vital importance both to its economic developmem and foreign exchange balance，as well as to the balanced supply and demand of textiles and ffade pattern in the world market．Under the framework of the “Multi—fiber Arrangement(MFA)”，the textiles export of China has been always imposed discriminative quantity restriction and disadvantage trade environment．After WTO accession，Chinese textiles industry will face relative fair trade environment as well as challenges． This article， which iS based on intemational and domestic macroeconomic background，reviews the development process of international textiles trade and its trade system；Prediets the impact on Chinese market under traffic cut system after WTO entry by means of Econometrics and SAS(Statistical Analysis System)；Analyzes impact facts of Chinas textiles production and exportation by using Grey System theory and developing its software；And puts forward countermeasures according to the results of the above research and to the 1atest development in both intemational and domestic markets Key words：WTO、production function、Grey System、grey correlative degree analyze、textiles trade、impact facts、Econometrics、elasticity ●r’ · 前 前 言 为加入世界贸易组纵，中国政痢经历了f几年的艰辛谈判。此间，国内涌现了大批学者致力于 这方面的研究。人们普遍认为，纺织行业将是入世后最为受惠的行业，这对于处于困境之中的纺织 、Ip无疑是—针强C膏fU。然而，入世犹如—把双刃剑，它带来的不仅是巨大的市场机会，同时也意味 着激烈的竞争。“入世究竟会给纺织业带来多大的利和弊?”以及“如何提高纺织业的竞争实力， 积极投入到世界贸