嘉兴市区商业地产价格预测研究-管理科学与工程专业论文.docxVIP

江西理工大学硕士学位论文 江西理工大学硕士学位论文 摘要 万方数据 万方数据 摘 要 随着上海、北京等一线城市的商业地产趋向饱和状态，，三四线城市的商业地产市 场逐渐受到投资者们的亲睐，而商业地产价格作为商业地产市场的“晴雨表”，其变化 不仅直接关系着商业地产市场的发展健康与否，同时也跟消费者、投资者的利益休戚相 关。本文以嘉兴市区商业地产价格为研究对象，研究其价格变化趋势以期获得有意义的 结论。本文主要从以下几个方面展开了研究： 首先，本文阐述了商业地产的定义、分类、特征以及相关基础理论，介绍了嘉兴市 区的概况、商圈的分析、商业地产的现状，同时，着重分析了嘉兴市区商业地产市场发 展面临的问题和具有的优势。 其次，基于商业地产价值构成和价格确定，本文从宏观、中观以及微观三个层面定 性分析了商业地产价格的影响因素，并且运用灰色综合关联度分析法定量分析了确立的 10 个嘉兴市区商业地产价格的可能影响因素，选取出其中综合关联度最大的 3 个影响因 素：市区人均 GDP、城市居民人均可支配收入以及城市居民人均消费性支出。 本文进而对所选的三个主要影响因素分别建立灰色 GM(1,1)预测模型，并结合商业 地产价格的灰色 GM(0,N) 模型对未来几年嘉兴市区商业地产的价格进行了预测。预测结 果显示未来几年嘉兴市区商业地产的价格将保持增长趋势。 最后，通过上述研究，结合嘉兴市区的实际情况，为嘉兴市区商业地产投资者提供 一些投资建议。 关键词：商业地产价格 ；嘉兴市区；GM(0,N)模型；GM(1,1)模型 I Abstract Abstract Abstract Since the commercial real estate of first-tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai tends to be saturated, the real estate market of 3rd and 4th tier cities is gradually favored by investors. As the the “barometer” of real estate, the price of commercial property is not only directly related to the development of real estate market, but also is closely related to the interests of investors and consumers. This thesis takes the Jiaxing city commercial real estate price as the research object to study its price trend in order to obtain meaningful conclusions.The research of this thesis is conducted from the following aspects: First, this thesis elaborates the definition, classification, characteristics and some other related theories of commercial real estate and presents an overview of Jiaxing city, its business circle as well as its present situation of the commercial real estate. It also analyzes the problems and the advantages in the development of the commercial real estate market of Jiaxing city. Then, based on the value composition and price determination of commercial real estate, this thesis makes an qualitative analysis of the factors that influence the price of real estate from the the macro, meso and micro levels. It also makes an quantitative analysis of ten potential influential fa