环境应急决策支持系统中预案构建与程序设计环境科学与工程专业论文.docxVIP

哈尔滨工业大学工学硕士学位论文 哈尔滨工业大学工学硕士学位论文 II II Abstract With the rapid development of economy in China, environmental pollution incidents occur frequently, and bring great harm and loss to socioeconomic, environment and human health. Generally speaking, the pollution incidents own the characteristics of suddenness and uncertainty; therefore it’s of importance to response to emergency incidents and make decision when environmental pollution incidents occur. This paper focuses on the construction and implementation of emergency plan in environmental decision support systems. Based on Reformed-Analytic Hierarchy Process(R-AHP) and Case-based Reasoning (CBR), the environmental pollution cases index attribute system is built by R-AHP, and the index attribute weights are calculated. Employing the frame as the knowledge representation method, we established a general frame of environmental pollution incidents, a sub -frame of pollutants characteristics, hydrology characteristics and weather conditions. Using CBR technology, the most similar cases are retrieved and matched from the case base. The index attribute system is classified into three categories: quantitative index attribute, symbolic index attribute and fuzzy index attribute. Th e similarity degree of index attributes is measured by reformed-Euclidean distance model and fuzzy similarity method. Thus, total similarity is obtained. Ranked by score from large to small, the most similar cases could be considered as the emergency plan. The reliability of the emergency plan is evaluated by the experts based on the blind number theory. This paper designs the environmental emergency planning system and analyses the system functions and operational processes. Employing C #. NET, the system is developed based on Visual Studio 2008 and the Oracle 10g. The system is tested by some cases. The results illustrate that the system can retrieve the most matched cases, and provide some technical support and improve the emergency disposal a