考虑不确定因素的电网灵活规划方法研究-电力系统及其自动化专业毕业论文.docxVIP

A Dissertation Submitted to Shanghai Jiao Tong University For the Master Degree FLEXIBLE TRANSMISSION SYSTEM EXPANSION UNDER UNCERTAINTIES Author：HUANG Lei Major： Power System and Its Automation Supervisor：Prof. CHENG Haozhong School of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering Shanghai Jiao Tong University Shanghai， P.R. China February 2010 第 第 I 页 考虑不确定因素的电网灵活规划方法研究 摘要 受未来国家政策、经济发展、环境变化等不确定因素的影响，电 网规划的过程中存在着众多的不确定性。本文主要针对未来电网规划 过程中负荷增长、发电机容量和线路故障三个不确定因素以及需要满 足的不同规划目标，研究了考虑不确定因素的电网灵活规划方法，定 义了各种不确定规划方案评价指标，建立了满足不同指标的电网灵活 规划模型，并给出了基于贪婪随机自适应搜索算法的求解方法。 本文首先引入不确定性数学规划理论，将电网规划中存在的主要 不确定因素用相应的随机变量加以描述和模拟。在此基础上分别从线 路潮流越限概率值、网络概率可用传输能力、最小切负荷费用悲观值 的角度，建立了基于机会约束规划的电网灵活规划模型、考虑概率可 用传输能力的电网灵活规划模型和考虑最小切负荷费用悲观值的电 网灵活规划模型。采用贪婪随机自适应搜索算法对所建模型进行求 解。算例结果表明，本文模型得到的规划方案相比实际网架对不确定 因素变化具有更好的适应能力。同时，应用本文模型给出了考虑不确 定因素的我国某区域电网 2012 年 500kV 网架规划方案。 关键词：电力系统，电网灵活规划，不确定因素，机会约束规划，可 用传输能力，最小切负荷，贪婪随机自适应搜索算法 第 第 II 页 FLEXIBLE TRANSMISSION SYSTEM EXPANSION UNDER UNCERTAINTIES ABSTRACT There are numerous uncertainties in the process of power grid planning subject to uncertain factors in national policy, economic development, and environmental changes in the future. In an uncertain environment, the traditional network planning methods are inadequate as follows: ①Certain data required for traditional network planning model is extremely difficult to forecast;②Traditional network planning models can not account large number of uncertain factors, only reflecting a few uncertain scenes;③Traditional network planning model can not account the uncertainties brought about by market-oriented reforms;④The traditional network planning program can not reflect its adaptation extent to the uncertainties. This thesis mainly focus on three uncertain factors which come from the load growth, generator capacity and line faults, and many other objects to meet in power grid planer’s job, study the flexible network planning methods considering uncertain factors, define various planning program evaluation