美国经济周期中宏观经济政策的责任-世界经济专业毕业论文.docx

哈尔滨工业大学工学硕士学位论文 哈尔滨工业大学工学硕士学位论文 - - II - Abstract After world war Ⅱ, all the developed countries were focusing on restoring and developing economy. Based on reliable economic basis and with the help of the America , European countries returned to prosperous picture before the war quickly ,but later ,the GDP was packing back and forth between 3% and 4%,especially in 90’s , the GDP increase begin to appear negative growth , unemployment and deflation make policy authority puzzled. Taking Japan as representative, Asian countries were developing fast enough under the formation of wild geese in flight patter. The miracle of GDP increase up to 20% even appeared in Japan. Unfortunately, Real estate froth of 80’s caused the crises of bank credit, after that, Japan was in depression till now. The American economy was remarkable, though several short recessions. Even in Petroleum crisis, only 23 months recession appeared. Based on the real business cycle, the paper analysis the initial strength of business cycle. technology is the root of economic undulation, and point out the responsibility of macroeconomic policy—time consistency of policy. In order to realize the time consistency of policy, the formulation the optimal policy is the foundation, government rationality is the Safeguard, the key problem lies on the system arrangement of government commitment. After point out General theory frame, exam the factor that causes the undulation of America economy. Through the analysis the 5 long wave business cycle, and 10 short wave business cycle , the paper draws the conclusion that technology was the basic reason of America economic undulation, and the responsibility of macroeconomic policy was always keep the policy of time consistency. American fiscal policy focused on how to improve the process of technology, and through Strengthening Independence of central bank ,monetary policy become more and more transparent and stable; Establishment of the system of government