辽西北地区干旱时空变化特征分析.docVIP

辽西北地区干旱时空变化特征分析 摘要：利用辽西北地区14个气象站与水文站1971年-2010年的基础 数据，得到降水量距平值、连续无雨日数、河道来水量距平值和相对湿润 度，并以这四项指标为基础，利用可变模糊评价法得到辽西北地区综合干 旱级别特征值，再结合线性倾向估计法、Mann-Kendall趋势检验与反距离 权重法对辽西北地区的气象、水文综合干旱时空分布特征进行分析。结果 表明：辽西北整体旱情呈显著加重趋势，1971年-1980年以轻度干旱为主, 旱情较严重的时期为20世纪80年代后，1981年-1990年干旱程度最?藥 现兀?1980年-2010年是重度干旱高发期，但特大干旱少有发生；辽西北 东北部和西南部地区旱情较为严重，且随时间变化呈现出加重趋势，而中 部地区干旱较轻，因此抗旱减灾的重点应集中在该区的东北部和西南部地 区。 关键词：辽西北；综合干旱；可变模糊；时空变化；级别特征值 中图分类号：S423文献标志码：A文章编号：1672-1683 (2017) 01-0049-06 Abstract : Based on the basic data of 1971-2010 at 14 meteorological stations in northwestern Liaoning province, this paper selected four indexes (the precipitation anomaly, number of consecutive days without rain, river runoff anomaly, and relative humidity ) , and obtained the comprehensive drought level characteristic value of northwestern Liaoning province using the variable fuzzy evaluation method. Then it used the linear trend estimation method and Mann-Kendall test method to analyze the trend of drought and used the IDW method to analyze the spatial variation charac teristics of comprehensive drought .The results show that the drought is growing significantly more serious.During 1971-1980, the drought was mostly mild, but was aggravated after the 1980s, and became the most serious during 1981-1990. The period of 1980-2010 witnessed a high incidence of severe droughts but few extremely severe droughts? The drought was more serious and was aggravated with time in the northcast and southwest of northwestern Liaoning province, but was less serious in the central region. Therefore, drought resistance and disaster reduction efforts should be mainly concentrated on the northeast and southwest of the region. Key words : northwestern Liaoning province ； comprehensive drought； variable fuzzy； temporal and spatial variation； the level characteristic value IPCC第五次评估报告指出，全球气候变暖已经是毋庸置疑的事实，由 于气候变暖而引发的气候异常时常发生[1] O气候异常变化已经使我国产 生了大范围的干旱[2],并且造成了严重的社会经济损失。当前，干旱问 题已经引起社会各界的广泛关注并成为水资源科学的研究热点[3],干旱 具体是指水分的收与支或供与求不平衡而形成的水分短缺现象[4],干旱 程度严重的将