山西物流产业发展综合评价与需求规模预测-统计学专业论文.docxVIP

PAGE PAGE 1 摘要 近年来，物流对促进地区经济发展起着日益重要的作用，引起了地方政府 及众多企业的高度重视，发展现代物流已经成为人们的共识。作为我国重要的 内陆省份，山西省在发展物流方面具有独特的地理优势。然而，由于缺乏对自 身物流产业发展水平的科学认识以及对未来物流需求规模的定量预测，山西省 物流规划过程中极易出现重复建设、盲目投资等问题，这将在一定程度上阻碍 物流产业的发展。 本文就以上问题展开分析：首先，介绍山西省的物流发展现状；其次，构 建物流发展综合评价指标体系，并运用因子分析方法建立评价模型，从而得出 2005-2006 年全国各省物流产业发展水平的综合排名，结果显示，山西省 2005 和 2006 年的物流发展在全国的排名变化不大，一直处于中下游水平；接着，运 用灰色模型、ARMA 模型、组合预测这三种方法对山西省的货物周转量做出了定 量预测， 以此 进一步分析山西物流需求规模的变化趋势。结果表明 ，山西省 2008-2010 年的物流需求规模将比 2007 年有所扩大，但年增长率呈现出递减趋 势，分别为 7.53%、6.29%、5.99%；最后，基于以上研究结果对山西省物流产业 的发展提出合理化建议。 【关键词】物流产业发展水平 因子分析 物流需求规模 灰色预测 ARMA 模型预测 组合预测 Abstract In recent year, the influence of the logistics is very important to promote economic development, the government and some entrepreneurs pay much more attention to the logistics, and people reach a consensus to develop the modern logistics. Shanxi is one of the important inland provinces, which own special geographic advantage to develop logistics. However, Shanxi province lack of the scientific understanding for the logistics development and the stationary forecast for the scale of logistics demand, therefore, to a certain extent, the logistics programming exist some problems, for example redundant construction、 blind investment and so on ,what will hinder the development of logistics industry in Shanxi. Therefore, this report analyzes: Firstly, introducing the development situation of logistics in Shanxi; Secondly, establishing the logistics development administrative evaluation data system, and making use of the factor analysis method to establish evaluation model and obtain the general ranking for each province about the logistics development from 2005 to 2006. It shows that Shanxi is in the middle in recent year and the logistics stop to develop; Next, the thesis uses gray forecast、ARMA model forecast and combined forecast to carry out quantities predict for the freight turnover in Shanxi, which can evaluate the change tendency for the logistics demand scale in Shanxi