山西省经济实力统计评价与分析-统计学专业论文.docxVIP

山西省经济 山西省经济实力统计评价与分析 PAGE PAGE 3 摘要 从威廉·配第时代开始，对一个国家或地区的宏观经济发展水平进行综合 统计评价和分析就成为宏观经济研究的一个重要领域，也是综合比较和研读各 地宏观经济发展不均衡性的一个重要方法。1979 年以来，随着我国改革开放的 持续发展和各省市间经济发展的不均衡性日益体现，对各省的经济实力进行综 合评价和分析再次引起决策者和研究者的重视。随着 2004 年和 2008 年两次经 济普查的实施，以本次调查数据为基准的综合评价与分析成为新一轮综合实力 评估的重要参照系。本文设计了一套较为完整和科学的统计评价指标体系，构 建了多元综合评价模型，并估计了主要参数，设计出了相应的参数估计方法。 在数据方面，第一、第二次山西经济普查数据与全国各省、各年的统计年鉴数 据相结合，分别测算了山西省及全国各省市自治区在 2004 年、2008 年两次经济 普查时间的经济实力及其排名。同时，将两次普查之间的各项指标进行了动态 指数计算和排名，并在此基础上进行了横向和纵向的多角度分析评价。本文认 为，山西省的综合经济实力虽然从 2004 年到 2008 年有了一定进步，但整体上 仍处于国内中下游水平，应以“国家资源型经济转型综合配套改革实验区”建 设中“先行先试”的政策导向为契机，积极引导转型发展和跨越发展，尽快提 升全省综合经济实力，为再造一个新山西做出贡献。 【关键词】 经济实力 综合评价 排名 Abstract From William Petty era, the statistical evaluation and analysis Of a country or regions macroeconomic development has become an important area of macroeconomic research. Since 1979, with the continued development of Chinas reform and opening up and the unbalanced economic development among provinces , the provinces comprehensive assessment and analysis of the cities’ economic strength has once again aroused attention among policy makers and researchers. A set of evaluation index system was designed in this paper. The first and second economic census data of Shanxi province was used combined with the series data in Statistical Yearbook of other provinces. The economic strength of Shanxi province were measured and ranked among provinces and autonomous regions nationwide in 2004, 2008, two economic census times. In the same time, the dynamic indices and rankings were calculated between the two censuses, and on this basis the horizontal and vertical multi-angle analysis and evaluation were made. Finally, some recommendations to improve the overall economic strength of the Shanxi province were proposed. This paper argues that although the comprehensive economic strength in Shanxi Province from 2004 to 2008 has had a certain progress, but on the whole Shanxi is still in middle or lower level of domestic. Shanxi should prove the provinces overall