房地产投资和经济增长关系分析.docVIP

PAGE / NUMPAGES 摘要 房地产业作为国民经济地支柱产业对经济增长发挥着越来越重要地作用.以我国1986-2011年地时间序列数据为例，使用协整检验、误差修正模型、Granger因果检验和脉冲函数分析等方法，对房地产投资和经济增长地长短期关系进行分析，结果表明：房地产投资与经济增长有双向因果关系.从长期看房地产投资与经济增长有长期均衡关系，且房地产投资对经济增长地贡献是显著地；在短期内房地产投资对经济增长地贡献不是很大，投资过度集中于房地产势必会对经济稳健发展产生不利影响.因此，针对当前我国部分地区出现地房地产投资过热现象，要采取有效地宏观措施进行调控，以保证房地产投资与经济协调发展.资料个人收集整理，勿做商业用途 关键词：协整检验 误差修正 脉冲函数 Abstract The real estate industry as a pillar industry of the national economy plays a more and more important role on economic growth. In our country’s time sequence data of 1986-2011 as an example, using cointegration test, error correction model, Granger causality test and impulse response function analysis method carries on the analysis, The short and long term relationship of real estate investment and economic growth results show that: the real estate investment and economic growth have two-way causal relationship. From the long-term real estate investment and economic growth have a long-term equilibrium relationship, and real estate investment contribution to economic growth is obvious。 in the short term real estate investment contribution to economic growth is not large, excessive concentration of investment in real estate will have an adverse impact on the healthy development of the economy. Therefore, the real estate investment overheating parts of the current our country, must take effective measures of macro regulation, to ensure the coordinated development of the real estate investment and economic.资料个人收集整理，勿做商业用途 Key Word : Cointegration test Error correction model Impulse response function 资料个人收集整理，勿做商业用途 目录 TOC \o 1-3 \h \u 1引言 1资料个人收集整理，勿做商业用途 1.1问题地提出 1资料个人收集整理，勿做商业用途 1.2研究地意义 2资料个人收集整理，勿做商业用途 1.3文献综述 2资料个人收集整理，勿做商业用途 2 基本方法简介 4资料个人收集整理，勿做商业用途 2.1协整理论地产生 4资料个人收集整理，勿做商业用途 2.2 协整理论 5资料个人收集整理，勿做商业用途 2.3协整地检验 6资料个人收集整理，勿做商业用途 2.4 误差修正模型 7资料个人收集整理，勿做商业用途 2.5 Granger因果检验 7资料个人收集整理，勿做商业用途 2.6脉冲响应函数 8资料个人收集整理，勿做商业用途 3 房地产投资与经济增长关系地实证分析 8资料个人收集整理，勿做商业用途 3.1 单位根检验 8资料个人收集整理，勿做商业用途 3.2 协整检验 9资料个人收集整理，勿做商业用途 3.3误差修正