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MANAGERIAL JUDGEMENT AND RISK ASSESSMENT IN STRATEGIG INVESTMENT DECISIONS (SIDs) © Elaine P Harris and Clive R Emmanuel Working Paper 2000/10 Department of Accounting Finance University of Glasgow Working Paper Series The Department should like to acknowledge the help and support of the Wards Trust Fund set up in 1980 after the untimely death of James Cusator Wards. Published 2000 by the Department of Accounting and Finance, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8LE ISBN 0 85261 709 7 Managerial Judgement and Risk Assessment in 1 Strategic Investment Decisions (SIDs) Elaine P. Harris (De Montfort University, Leicester) Clive R. Emmanuel (University of Glasgow) Abstract The theoretical definition of risk applies where possible outcomes are known and the probability of those outcomes can be estimated. Risk analysis techniques therefore focus on the effect of risk. Several surveys indicate that these techniques are normally complemented or dominated by subjective or intuitive assessments of risk which has prompted a debate over a possible theory-practice gap. When an alternative theoretical perspective of decision-making under uncertainty is adopted, managerial cognition of risk embraces human information processing capabilities, group dynamics and consensus-building. This approach encompasses managerial attempts to recognise unpredictable events and to isolate their causes. Whether risk is seen from a cause or effect perspective may be gauged by examining empirical, especially field-based studies which suggest a theory-theory gap exists. Emergence of this gap can be reconciled within the different stages of the strategic investment decision (SID) process. An emphasis on the cause of risk requires management judgements at lower levels in an organisation, at the p