摩根斯丹利-财富管理全景透视-2017.2.28-42页.pdfVIP

Wealth Management Perspectives Beyond Secular Stagnation • The single most important investment controversy over the strategic horizon of the next 5-7 years is determining the long run growth rate of the US economy. Currently, long duration bonds are pricing a depressing scenario where real economic growth, and in turn the neutral Fed Funds rate is assumed to be 150-250 basis points lower per year than during the 40 years preceding the global financial crisis (GFC). • Such an outlook is consistent with the theory of secular stagnation where the imbalance of excess savings over investment is stuck in a virtuous negative feedback loop. We believe that consensus portfolio positioning reflects this view with overweights to cash, bonds, gold, perceived stability (low beta), and low volatility. • We take a more sanguine view. While we acknowledge that the recovery post GFC has been noteworthy for its disappointments; we see growth shortfalls as explained by a collision of four massive supercycles—demographics, productivity, debt and commodities—all of which are in the process of troughing. While change in trend may be slow to develop, we believe the worst of the growth drags are now behind us and the rate of change in major variables is or will soon be positive. • Secondly and perhaps more importantly, this same tsunami of supercycle headwinds has been multiplied by stale and sclerotic policy choices that have prevented pro-growth spending priorities, inhibited capital investment, promulgated regulation and materially exacerbated income/wealth inequality. We estimate that these man-made obstacles collectively explain as much as two-thirds to three quarters of the output gap. • Fiscal spending is part of a solution and odds are improving that the electorate will support it