高盛——全球太阳能电池行业深度研究.docVIP

Global Technology SUSTAINABLE INVESTING: Alternative Energy Solar Cell Industry Looks Attractive Toward 2010 The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. March 31, 2006 This report is the second in our Environmental stock series Sunny skies ahead. While the burgeoning solar cell industry may face a growth slowdown in the short term due to silicon material shortages, we expect an across-the-board surge in solar cell-related earnings from about 2008. If technology enables continued cost cuts, the potential market scale should expand accordingly. For an overview of the initiative, see Launching Our Environmental Stock Series, published March 31, 2006 Daiki Takayama Goldman Sachs (Japan) Ltd. daiki.takayama@ Tokyo: 81-3-6437-9870 Solar cell demand should treble by 2010, still ample room for growth We expect global solar cell installation to reach about 4 GW in 2010, up from 1.5 GW in 2005. Expansion of solar cell use should continue owing to the spread of electric power purchasing systems in Europe and efforts to expand use in the US and Asia. Shortages of silicon materials are likely to continue until 2007, but supply should meet demand thereafter. Takashi Watanabe Goldman Sachs (Japan) Ltd. takashi.watanabe@ Tokyo: 81-3-6437-9894 Hisaaki Yokoo Goldman Sachs (Japan) Ltd. hisaaki.yokoo@ Tokyo: 81-3-6437-9930 2008 to bring end to materials shortage, surge in solar cell maker earnings The solar cell-related value chain should benefit from overall market expansion over the medium/long term, but profit distribution is likely to vary in different phases of development. Short-term attention should focus on silicon materials firms and solar cell makers that can maintain margins. The peaking-out of silicon prices should prompt surges in solar cell makers’ earnings and demand for production equipment. Sarah Forrest Goldman Sachs International sarah.forrest@ London: +44(20)7552-9368 Emily Chang Goldman Sachs (Asia) L.L.C. emily.chang@ Taipei: +886(2)2730-4182 Cost competitiveness to be