场预测与管理决策分析.pptVIP

Example of a Decision Tree Problem A glass factory specializing in crystal is experiencing a substantial backlog （欠货） , and the firms management is considering three courses of action: A) Arrange for subcontracting （分包） B) Construct new facilities C) Do nothing (no change) The correct choice depends largely upon demand, which may be low, medium, or high. By consensus, management estimates the respective demand probabilities as 0.1, 0.5, and 0.4. Example of a Decision Tree Problem: The Payoff Table The management also estimates the profits when choosing from the thr