东北亚国家经贸合作的情况与特征研究.docxVIP

东北亚国家经贸合作的情况与特征研究      　　Abstract：In 2017, the global economy continued its trend in the second half of 2016 with low speed growth. However, a series of events, such as trade protectionism, DPRK s nuclear missile test, and many restrictive factors in the region have brought uncertainty to the regional economic and trade cooperation in Northeast Asia. From the perspective of current situation and characteristics of economic and trade cooperation between Northeast Asian countries, China, as the largest trading country in the world, has become an indispensable main force in guiding economic and trade cooperation in Northeast Asia as the regional influence and international influence gradually increase. Japan and South Korea, as major economic countries in the region, are lack of raw materials and have export oriented economic structure and geographic advantages, which determines the inevitable requirement of developing economic and trade cooperation with other countries in the region. Russia and Mongolia are countries with rich resources in the region, the economic development of which could not be separate from energy exports, with strong complementarity in developing economic and trade cooperation with other countries in the region. With the deepening of China s Belt and Road construction, it will provide more advantageous conditions for the development of regional economic and trade cooperation. 　　Keyword：Northeast Asia;economy and trade;regional cooperation; 　　一、2017年东北亚区域经贸合作形势分析 　　(一) 世界经济贸易总体稳中有升, 喜忧掺半 　　2017年, 世界经济贸易尽管面临投资低迷、保护主义抬头等诸多问题, 但复苏迹象明显, 全球经济增长速度高于预期。根据国际货币基金组织 (IMF) 对2017年全球经济进行的预测, 预计2017年增长率为3.5%。世界银行2017年6月发布的《全球经济展望》也对2017年世界经济进行了预测, 预计2017年年全球经济增速将从2016年的2.4%回升至2.7%。此外, 在国际投资方面, 持续增长态势明显, 根据联合国贸发会议 (UNCTAD) 发布的《2017年世界投资报告》预计, 2017年全球外国直接投资将增长5%, 达到近1.8万亿美元。 　　从世界主要经济体表现来看, 中国经济保持持续稳定增长, 已经成为世界经济增长重要引擎。2017年前三季度, 中国GDP增速为6.9%, 继续保持中高速增长。中国的一带一路;倡议得到越来越多国家的参与和支持, 为世界经济和贸易注入了新活力和发展新空间。  　　美国经济继续